Just recently, Hollywood superstar Leonardo DiCaprio worked with the National Geographic to launch a documentary, titled Before the Flood, which has gone viral on the Internet and other media platforms. The movie talks about climate change as an imminent threat to mankind in the next few decades, and is a real problem for the future. One of the major causes for climate change, as indicated by NASA and many climatologists, is the “expansion of greenhouses gases”, and the burning of fossil fuels is a significant contributor to the increase in CO2 emissions. To achieve sustainable development, it is vital to review the energy policy, which is closely related to a country’s economic development and environmental conservation.
Taiwan has a population of 23 million, which is less than 0.3% of the world’s total population. However, it is responsible for nearly 1% of the world’s total carbon emissions, and ranks 18th worldwide for per capita carbon emissions. Facing the pressure from China, Taiwan was forced to give up its representation at the United Nations in 1971, and has not been able to participate in the UN related organisations or specialised agencies ever since. Therefore, Taiwan has been excluded from important global climate mechanisms, such as the Kyoto Protocol, or the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which hosts the annual COP.
Nevertheless, climate change knows no boundaries, and all living creatures on earth will be affected. To show its commitment to complying with international standards, Taiwan has taken unilateral actions to show its efforts to cut carbon emissions. On top of that, the Cabinet submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) report on 17 September 2015, hoping to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 50% from the business-as-usual level by 2030, or 20% less than the nation’s 2005 GHG emissions. This was approved by the Taiwanese government in November of the same year.
Now that the goal has been set, the problem is how to achieve that. Currently, in terms of Taiwan’s power generation sources, thermal power accounted for 78.4% (including coal and natural gas), nuclear power 16.0%, renewable energy 4.2% (mainly solar and wind power), and 1.4% of pumped-storage hydroelectricity.
Taiwan relies on imports for over 98% of its energy needs, so it is critically important for Taiwan to have stable energy sources to ensure national security.
Taiwan relies on imports for over 98% of its energy needs, so it is critically important for Taiwan to have stable energy sources to ensure national security and its economic development. Thermal power generation is by far one of the largest sources for carbon emissions. Nuclear energy, on the other hand, can be considered a “quasi-indigenous” energy source, and is a type of clean energy as it does not emit carbon dioxide during power generation. However, in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the world has become extremely cautious and concerned about the use of nuclear power, and the issue of whether to phase out nuclear power has been heatedly debated in recent years.
Currently, 31 countries in the world have nuclear power plants. Major nuclear accidents, such as the Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and the most recent Fukushima disasters, have sparked great fear among the public. Right after the Fukushima accident, Japan suspended the operations of all of the nuclear reactors, and suffered from 49 of the 58 months of trade deficit due to the soaring costs of fuel imports. Like Japan, Taiwan relies heavily on energy imports and has an independent power grid, which means Taiwan is extremely vulnerable and will face an energy crisis once the energy import is disrupted.
On 20 May 2016, the newly elected President Tsai Ing-wen mentioned in her inaugural address that the government will adjust the energy options based on the concepts of sustainability. In fact, during her presidential campaign, President Tsai proposed a plan to make Taiwan a “nuclear-free homeland” by 2025. The method is to look for alternative energy sources, increase energy efficiency, conserve energy, adjust industrial structures, and liberalise the power industry, so that Taiwan will be able to phase out nuclear in 2025. During the Central Standing Committee of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in June, which she also serves as chairwoman, she reaffirmed the commitment that the goal of building a “nuclear-free homeland” by 2025 remains unchanged, and the new government will not leave the public to choose only between “power shortage” and “nuclear power”.
There are four nuclear power plants in Taiwan. The fourth nuclear power plant, Lungmen Power Plant, obtained the licence for construction in March 1999, but the process had been delayed due to the public’s opposition to its design of using Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR) and the safety concerns. After the Fukushima incident happened, the Taiwanese government decided to mothball the fourth nuclear power plant in April 2014. This decision has left Taiwan with only six nuclear reactors in three operating power plants. As for the timeline of phasing out nuclear power by 2025, it is because 2025 will be the year when all three nuclear power plants in Taiwan will be decommissioned, and natural gas and other alternative sources will be used to replace nuclear power, according to the new Minister of Economic Affairs Minister Lee Chih-kung.
The new government seems to be quite optimistic about the prospect of renewable energy. However, the first problem the new government will have to face in adopting more renewable energy will be the rising costs. According to the statistics released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in August 2015, Taiwan’s electricity price for household was the third lowest in the world, which stood at NT$2.83, or US$0.0856 per kWh. The price of industrial use was NT$2.93, or US$0.0889, the fourth lowest in the world. Back in 2012, when the previous government launched the price hikes in oil and electricity, the public strongly opposed to the policy, and even caused social turbulence, and even led to the overwhelming failure in the local elections.
The new government is committed to replacing nuclear with renewable energy. Taiwan’s PV industry is quite strong, and with Taiwan’s technological advancement, it seems like a viable option. However, due to natural limitations, both power sources are intermittent in nature, so they will not be able to completely replace the baseline power. Some senior employees from the Taiwan Power Company also expressed that during the manufacturing process, solar panels even produced more toxic substances and emissions than thermal power generation. The conversion rate of solar power is only about 10%, and the official solar PV goal is 8.7 GW by 2030, but Taiwan currently has installed 728 MW of cumulative solar PV capacity, which is far behind the demand. Clearly, there is still a long way to go.
Will Taiwan face power shortage in the near future? If the government cannot find a solution to filling the gap after the nuclear phase-out, the answer is definitely yes. Therefore, it is strongly advised that the government should consider all possible energy sources and not rule out any possibility. How to strike a balance between the two spectrums of economic development and environmental protection is never an easy task, but once the no-nuke policies are in place, it would be extremely difficult to turn the situation around. While exploring the renewable energies, the government should conduct more public communication, and weigh in the pros and cons of phasing out nuclear power. For example, Taiwan can learn from the experience of Germany, which decides to phase out nuclear completely by 2022, or Japan, which decided to restore parts of the nuclear operations a few years after the horrific nuclear disaster, or even some oil producing countries in the Middle East, which decide to build new power plants despite they possess rich oil reserves.
Taiwan cannot afford to lose any possible energy sources, and perhaps finding the optimal energy mix might be a solution to the urgent problem. Let’s hope that Taiwan’s efforts in making a better energy policy will contribute to the global fight against climate change.
Betty Chen is the East Asia Special Correspondent for The Sunday Guardian.