East Asia edges towards limited war

East Asia edges towards limited war

Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Jiang faction seeks to derail Xi Jinping through raising tensions.
Despite several of its members being jailed or proceeded against on corruption charges, the group within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) led by former President and CCP General Secretary Jiang Zemin is continuing its efforts at discrediting current Head of State and party chief Xi Jinping. For the Jiang group, whose members have collectively been estimated to be worth $380 billion in undeclared assets (mostly overseas), to unseat or at the minimum weaken into ineffectiveness Xi Jinping has become a matter of survival. Each month, more of its flock are falling into the anti-corruption nets spread across China by the present government, which has lately also been investigating assets held in locations such as Vancouver, Adelaide, San Francisco and London by nominees of members of the group, usually in the names of close family members, several of whom have during the previous 16 years acquired foreign passports. Of the top 200 members of the group, it is suspected within the relevant CCP agencies that more than half this list are also, secretly, citizens of foreign countries, exactly the same situation as in India, where undeclared foreign passports are held by several thousand high net worth individuals who are from the business, official and political streams. 
Among the most effective ways in which President Xi is being boxed in is through the influence of the Jiang group on People’s Republic of China (PRC) media, a field of activity in which there are numerous individuals who have become wealthy owing to the “envelope culture” encouraged during the tenure in office of Jiang Zemin, who dominated both the CCP as well as the government from 1989 to 2003, and who used his influence and affluence thereafter to ensure that the power of his successor, Hu Jintao, was diluted by Jiang’s powerful nominees in the State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), the economic ministries, the military and the security services. None of these could get reformed during Hu’s ten years in office (2003-2013), although he himself was in favour of changes that would make China grow faster in the future. The Jiang group bears a resemblance to some of the 2004-2014 economic and political czars of the UPA in India, in that it favours imports over local goods and has strong links with the financial agencies headquartered in the US and the EU that are responsible for the 2008 global economic crash, besides the steady impoverishment of the lower and middle classes since the 1990s in every country where they have a dominant influence, especially the US. During the period in office of the UPA, much of India Inc morphed from international tigers taking over foreign enterprises to becoming agents of such enterprises in India, where during the previous decade, much of large industry is now in the control of foreign enterprises, sometimes openly but usually through well-tended routes such as Participatory Notes and the Mauritius channel. 
The Jiang group has promoted a jingoistic crescendo of noise in large sections of the Chinese media, including newly popular online entities. These play to the hyper-patriotic sentiments of several tens of millions of Chinese citizens by advocating a policy of force and dominance against other countries in Asia, even while challenging the US militarily in the continent. As a consequence of the misrepresentation of facts by analysts and commentators close to the big money interests within the group, an atmosphere of siege is getting created in China. The people of what will soon be the world’s largest economy are being repeatedly told that they are being “encircled” by neighbours such as Vietnam, the Philippines and India, and that “pre-emptive action” needs to be taken to ensure that such countries do not inflict damage on the PRC first. The creation of a hyper-patriotic spirit gets added on to unrealistic estimates of China’s present capability to change policies in other countries in order to constrain the diplomacy of President Xi. It will be recalled that the Jiang group had engineered border incursions into India at the precise time when the two most consequential leaders of Asia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping, were meeting on 17 September 2014 in a cordial atmosphere in Gujarat. It is not an accident that members of the Jiang group have extensive networks with influential individuals and institutions within the NATO bloc, and that the policies it clandestinely promotes are designed to sour relations with countries that are seeking to balance ties between Beijing and Washington. Indeed, President Barack Obama’s best card in much of Asia is the unease created by the muscle flexing indulged in by those party influentials backing the Jiang group, who are seeking to ensure that the policy of conciliation adopted by Deng Xiaoping to such beneficial effect over two decades be abandoned in favour of a policy of confrontation with neighbours and with others. 
The tinderbox that East Asia is becoming as a consequence of the hyper-patriotism and calls to war indulged in by Jiang group members under the guise of protecting national interest since Xi Jinping took office in 2013, is nowhere more exemplified than in the Taiwan straits. The geographically small but economically huge nation, whose 23 million people have just elected to office a brilliant and soft-spoken female leader, Tsai Ing-wen to the Presidency of the Republic of China (Taiwan), has been the focus of the Jiang group within Mainland China. A word of mouth campaign is raging across the PRC that the “soft” policies towards Taiwan of President Hu that have been continued by President Xi have “lessened into insignificance” Mainland China’s role in Taiwan. The reality is the opposite, with the Mainland accounting for nearly half of tourist arrivals and half of the island’s exports. During the period in office of Hu Jintao and his interlocutor in Taipei (former President Ma Ying-jeou), links between the Mainland and Taiwan have expanded exponentially, to the benefit of both sides. So deep has such context become that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has won both control of the Legislative Yuan as well as the Presidency in the just-concluded elections, has shifted its stance from a push towards formal independence into backing for the status quo. In her inaugural address when taking over the nation’s highest office on 20 May, Tsai Ing-wen went as far as to acknowledge and affirm support for the “1992 Consensus”, a theoretical construct invented by KMT strategist Su Chi that has become the foundation for relations between Taipei and Beijing ever since. This goes that “both sides will adhere to the One China principle, but differ from each other on the meaning of One China”. Breaking with DPP orthodoxy, which regards the “1992 Consensus” as the thin edge of a wedge unifying the RoC and the PRC, Tsai in her inaugural address made it clear that she accepts the formulation and will work within its confines. This was an act of political courage, given that several of her supporters reject the “1992 Consensus” in toto, and seek a Taiwanese unilateral Declaration of Independence, an action certain to lead to war with the PRC.
The Jiang group has been dismayed by Tsai’s pragmatism, as it had hoped that the anti-Mainland hawks would carry the day within the new DPP administration. Instead, Tsai has chosen a Cabinet where nearly half are independent of party, being domain experts. Of the other half, the proportion of KMT-leaning individuals is about the same as that of those that are tilted towards the DPP. This is in contrast to the previous KMT administration, that was almost entirely comprised of KMT loyalists with near-zero representation from those affiliated in any form with the DPP. Should Beijing respond to Tsai’s outstretched hand of peace in a conciliatory manner, the effect on Taiwanese society would be to boost feelings of kinship with the Mainland and to carry forward the process of linking the Taiwanese as well as the Mainland economies closer together, even while both sides trade extensively with other parts of the globe. It needs to be borne in mind that the coming to power of the DPP in 2000 was in large part because of the resentment of the Taiwanese voter towards the missile-flexing of Jiang Zemin across the Taiwan straits. This, combined with undiplomatic and bellicose official rhetoric from Beijing, created a sense of alienation with the Mainland that led several hundred-thousands of erstwhile KMT supporters to switch to the DPP. Its then leader Chen Shui-bian, after being sworn in as President, attempted a few conciliatory gestures towards the PRC, but each of this was rebuffed by Jiang. The consequence was a hardening of anti-Mainland sentiment within both the Taiwanese people as well as the administration, a situation which got reversed only after Hu Jintao took office and began the series of conciliatory steps that—together with matching policies by the successor KMT administration—have led to an unprecedented web of contacts between the two sides, something sought to be reversed by the Jiang group. Among other measures, the group is discouraging Mainland tourists from visiting Taiwan, hoping to create not just economic distress but the same alienation and lack of contact between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait as was the case when Jiang was in full charge in Beijing. 
Given their continuing support within the CCP, especially the military and the media, the jury is out on whether PRC President Xi Jinping will be able to grasp the hand of friendship proffered by Tsai Ing-wen and repeat his unprecedented gesture of actually meeting an RoC President, this time not in Singapore but in Mainland China itself. Both Xi and Ma met in November last year, the first time the top leaders of the KMT and the CCP met each other since 1945, the year when Japan was defeated, but the Chinese civil war began in earnest, ending in 1949 in the rout of the former and the coming to power in Beijing of Mao Zedong. Should Tsai and Xi meet, the war clouds that interested parties are encouraging over the Taiwan Strait will reduce considerably in size, while across both sides, the desire for conciliation and cooperation would grow, in contrast to the tensions that a return to the muscle-flexing of the Jiang period would create. Geopolitical currents have changed substantially in 2016 from what they were two decades ago, in large part because of the hyper-patriotic moves generated through propaganda instruments in the effective control of the Jiang group. Should Beijing fail to acknowledge and respond appropriately to Tsai’s courageous gesture of conciliation (made at the cost of elements of the fire of her party’s political theology), that would boost the power of hard-liners within the DPP, who look towards Tokyo and Washington in order to fashion strategy of a complete break with Beijing. That would play to those policymakers in Washington and Tokyo who are looking forward to a return of the frost between the two sides of the strait that was the situation under Jiang Zemin.
Tensions over the South China Sea that have been created by Jiang-style military assertiveness by the People’s Liberation Army have resulted in a greater strategic distance between ASEAN and China. This would ensure that Taipei would receive a much warmer welcome by the alliance than would have been the case had a Deng Xiaoping policy been followed by China in the South China Sea during 2014 and much of 2015, or until Xi Jinping was able to wrest control of the military from the influence of the Jiang Zemin faction. Should this group succeed in its ongoing effort at weakening the Chinese leader, thereby clearing the decks for an aggressive policy directed towards the PRC’s southern neighbours, the chances are increasing that there may be a naval or air shootout somewhere across the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea. This would plunge the region into a limited war, the effects of which would linger for decades. Such a conflict, or indeed the rising expectation of a limited war involving air and sea assets of China, the US and Japan, would result in a diversion of attention by Xi Jinping from domestic to external issues. Thereby, his drive on corruption would get slowed down, if not stopped altogether. In this way, by provoking tensions that could spill over into a shootout, the Jiang group hopes to halt the ongoing drive against its corrupt membership lists. 
The Jiang group is working together with some of its overseas backers (who have ensured a very negative press for Xi Jinping over the past 29 months) for precisely such a conflict. A sign of whether such a danger will move towards fulfilment will come in the reaction from Beijing to the inauguration of Tsai Ing-wen as the first female leader of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Should the errors in policy made during 1999 and 2003 by Jiang Zemin get repeated in 2016, East Asia will become a global flashpoint that would put any lingering tensions between India and Pakistan in the minor leagues. In contrast, should Xi Jinping be strong enough to fend off the hyper-patriots who are in actuality helping hostile forces through their attitudes and policies, and respond with calm and comradeship to Tsai Ing-wen the way he did so expertly with Ma Ying-jeou, efforts by the Jiang group to ensure geopolitical tensions that damage economic prospects in the region will get consigned to the dustbin. Now that Tsai has made her move through a conciliatory start to her term in office, it is over to Xi Jinping to carry forward the cross-straits that began under Hu and Ma, or to find himself made to go along with the Jiang Zemin strategy of rising tensions and an increase in prospects for a war in East Asia.

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Dear Dr. Nalapat Your in-depth analysis of Jiang and Xi rivalry is breathtaking containing obliquely the narrative relevant to India and it's state of affair during UPA regime. I wish to see some more similarly well researched writings on the SA geopolitics Best wishes @PublicFraudExam @ecopolit

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On Taiwan matters, this article is false to the point of being unethical. Tsai did not affirm support for the 1992 consensus (which does not exist). She affirmed that meetings took place in 1992 in a spirit of trying to find common ground, and perhaps some understandings were arrived at at those meetings, but she said nothing about support for or acknowledgement of the "1992 Consensus" specifically, and nothing about "one China" in any interpretation. This is a fabrication, and quite a serious and one, as it is quite literally reporting on the opposite of what happened. It shows a clear lack of journalistic ethics. There is no way "The Jiang group has been dismayed by Tsai’s pragmatism, as it had hoped that the anti-Mainland hawks would carry the day within the new DPP administration" is true either - Xi wants China to control Taiwan but so did Jiang. Beyond that the old Jiang Zemin supporters likely don't care much about Taiwan now. To what extent they do, they would also feel that Taiwan is a part of China. Finally, it is painfully false to assume that if Xi accepts Tsai's peaceful rhetoric, the Taiwanese people will feel "closer kinship" with China. That is not going to happen, because Taiwan has cultivated, for a few hundred years now, a separate Taiwanese identity that is not likely to disappear...well, ever, really, but certainly not during Tsai's tenure. If anything, electing Tsai on a wave of identity as Taiwanese, not Chinese, means her administration (run by parties whose platforms lead pro-independence, not pro-China) means Taiwanese identity will continue to surge. There really is no going back to the idea that China and Taiwan are or ever could be the same, or the people could be the same. The Taiwanese have rejected that. So, reporting the opposite of this - that they will feel "closer" to China - is again dubious to the point of being a breach of journalistic ethics. But, I am happy to see that you referred to Taiwan (well, the ROC) as a "nation". It is one. That's one correct move in an article otherwise full of actual, blatant lies.

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One more quick thing, in Taiwan there is not a group of "anti-Mainland Hawks". Few people are "anti-China" so much as they are "pro-Taiwan" and almost all of them want both peace and independence. Nobody - literally NOBODY - wants war with China or war at all. Taiwan is a peace-loving nation. So who are these "hawks" you're talking about?

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Tsai affirmed that there was a 1992 meeting,that certain conclusions were arrived at during that meeting,and that she respects that outcome. To those who dont have too much masala,that reads like an acceptance (by another name) of the so-called 1992 consensus. The abuse seems excessive given the speech. The reaction of channamasala is the same as that of the PRC hawks,who wanted Tsai to openly refer to the 1992 consensus in a positive way. They want "both peace and independence",the experts Mr Masala refers to.They want both black and white? At the same time? Will there be peace if independence is declared the way the non-hawks (according to Mr Masala) seek? The author,it is clear from his writings,is a friend of both the RoC and the PRC and wants the two sides to live in peace.Those far away (or who have dual passports and therefore an escape hatch) may dream of war but no true friend of Taiwan would concur with such a stand. And how did he known Jiang does not care about Taiwan these days? Is he a friend of the man who launched missiles and threatened war? Am shocked at the language of this agenda-driven intervention that seems to justify the PRC hawks who ignore the statesman quality of a nuanced speech seeking conciliation rather than conflict. Please dont join the hawks,no matter how rancid the channa,Mr Masala

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Tsai did not refer to "the 1992 consensus in a positive way", because she didn't refer to the 1992 consensus at all. And she did not all but acknowledge it - her words were very carefully crafted so as to acknowledge that the meeting happened but the "consensus" did not necessarily happen (without openly saying it did or didn't). There is a huge difference there - anyone with even the slightest knowledge of diplomacy understands the difference between these two statements. In fact, the 1992 consensus cannot exist, because the two sides don't even agree on what the 1992 consensus was! China says it was that both sides agreed there was "one China", whereas the KMT said it was that both sides agreed "there is one China but both sides are free to interpret that as they see fit". China did not agree to this and has never used that language - if the two sides can't even agree on what the 1992 consensus entailed, then clearly there was no consensus. Finally, it is not a pro-war agenda to speak the truth: Taiwan wants peace. It also wants independence and does not want to be a part of China. It's a manipulation of not only history but the current state of affairs in Taiwan to accuse anyone who supports Taiwanese sovereignty of having a "pro-war agenda'. Beijing is the one with the missiles pointed at Taiwan. Beijing is the intransigent one, demanding specific words from the mouths of Taiwan leaders. Beijing is the bully. Beijing is the one edging the situation closer to war - the fault here is entirely with China, not Taiwan. So, basically, you can stick it, and I do also recommend that if you can't understand the slight differences in connotation of what Tsai said, you might want to improve your English skills. Also, don't call me "Mr. Masala", I'm female...ya sexist! For those who still can't understand the difference between 'she acknowledged the meeting took place and some understandings may have been reached but not what those understandings were' (which did happen) and 'Tsai acknowledged the 1992 consensus' (which did NOT happen), here is a primer for you: http://laorencha.blogspot.tw/2016/05/1992-whiplash.html

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I must reiterate Channamasala's point: The author is way off on everything he/she has written regarding President Tsai's inauguration address and a multitude of other issues regarding cross-strait relations. President Tsai did not refer to any "consensus" whatsoever. She used strategic diplomatic language to ensure that she would not refer to (accept, recognize, nor acknowledge) "one China" nor did she explicitly characterize cross-strait relations as exchanges between two sovereign states. This gives Beijing an opportunity to work with President Tsai; however, it appears that Beijing will be as rigid as it usual is while making itself appear more hostile (Is this really a surprise?). What "anti-Mainland Hawks" are present in Taiwan? Why can't Taiwanese who are in favor of preserving their sovereignty be characterized as pro-Taiwan? They have to be characterized as "anti-Mainland" for wanting to preserve their way of life? Which side is the one aiming missiles at the other side? Oh, yes....China.

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The hysteria over a news analysis focussing on China in Asia ( rather than just cross-strait ties) shows the minefield some so-called friends of Taiwan are seeking to lay across the path of the new President. Many across the globe have developed a vested interest in cross-strait tensions as others have in creating the perception that India and Pakistan are not already nuking each other each other only because of their timely intervention . In her speech,Dr Tsai affirmed the continued relevance of the RoC Constitution,which is based on One China. The newly elected leader tellingly chose, and not by accident,1992 as the base year for her remarks on cross-strait ties,and said that the 1992 talks were a historical fact. Such remarks were seen in the report as an act of political courage that needed to be reciprocated rather than rebuffed by Beijing. Those who construe the relevant parts of the speech as an olive branch to Beijing ( a gesture needed to ensure peace and prosperity in Taiwan through cross-straits stability ) do not deserve the abuse some have indulged in, although it must be said that those wanting to fight China to the last Taiwanese will wish such "well wishers" of Taiwan success in ensuring that the many hawks in Beijing be given sufficient fodder for their efforts at returning cross-strait relations to the poison of the Jiang years because their favourite party has lost to a democratic challenger. Such folks across the straits will be delighted to accept the view that the Inaugural speech was an explicit repudiation of the "1992 consensus" and a cry for independence couched in polite language rather than the bold freeing of the doves of conciliation by Madame Tsai mentioned in the report on the Xi-Jiang dynamic

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"Fighting China to the last Taiwanese" captures the folly of those who seek to picture Tsai as an inveterate foe of China,which is what the KMT wants the Chinese to believe. In the guise of friends, commentators who are 95% masala and 5% channa are seeking to drive the two sides of the strait towards a confrontation that will harm both.Three cheers for Narendra Modi,who had the guts to send a party leader to Taipei for the Inauguration ( a first) and Professor Nalapatt, for warning Chinese leaders not to fall prey to the machinations of the Jiang faction.This set of corrupt officials want Xi to fail so they seek a confrontation with Tsai,who (as Nalapatt points out,is a statesman who places the interests of her people and nation above that of narrow ideologues pursuing a selfishj agenda under the camouflage of idealistic words./ Give me realists such as Modi and Tsai anytime over the abusive people who rant and rave at any suggestion that Tsai was pragmatic and not polemical

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