Nitish Kumar’s supporters have started the exercise of uniting various backward communities to cobble up a caste and social based coalition in order to ensure that the Bihar Chief Minister emerges as the principal opponent of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This nationwide coalition has at its core the formula of bringing together the backwards and others such as Kapus, Gurjars, Patidars, Ahirs, Jats, Marathas, Vokkaligas, Kurmis and Muslims. The primary thinking of various strategists working towards the projection of the Bihar CM as a formidable alternative to the BJP is that the Mandal mantra of caste-based reservation should be both revived and galvanised to propel their effort.
Leaders from various backward communities and others, including Hardik Patel of Gujarat, who has been agitating for reservations for the Patels, the All India Jat Mahasabha, Rajasthan Gurjar Arakshan Samiti, Vokkaliga Sangh have approached Kumar in the last 10-15 days, asking him to lead their agitations in various parts of the country. Hardik Patel sent a letter to Nitish Kumar last week, inviting him to visit Gujarat. Kumar responded positively by saying he would be there next month.
Recently, Nitish Kumar, while addressing the Janata Dal United’s National Council meeting at Rajgir in Nalanda had claimed that the country was passing through an agrarian crisis due to which once prosperous and powerful agrarian castes, including Jats in Haryana, Patidars in Gujarat and Marathas in Maharashtra have been demanding reservations because of their poor economic condition. It was his way of sending feelers to the affected communities to join him for a better future.
JDU general secretary K.C. Tyagi said that the communities and castes that are in a pitiable condition and denied benefits of reservation recommended by B.P. Mandal Commission are now looking for answers. “The Jats, Gurjars, Vokkaligas and Patidars need reservation because of the condition they are in. The benefits of the Green Revolution and industrial revolution of Gujarat and Maharashtra too have failed to help them as protests by the Patidars and Marathas show. The large pro-reservation rallies that are happening in different parts reflect that many communities and castes are not in a good condition. Members and leaders of these communities have called upon Nitish Kumar to lead their agitation. This is going to go beyond Mandal,” Tyagi told The Sunday Guardian.
Nitish Kumar’s programme is being finalised by the Chief Minister’s Office at Patna. The CMO confirmed that Nitish Kumar will be going to Gujarat after the New Year’s celebrations to extend his support to the reservation agitation by the Patidars. Earlier in the second week of November, he will take part in a similar programme for the Vokkaligas. He is further expected to come to Delhi to attend a meet of the All India Jat Mahasabha, which wants to felicitate him for extending his support to their reservation demands.
JDU sources said that Nitish Kumar is looking at the bigger picture by supporting the various groups that are seeking reservation and that’s why he has not shied away from agreeing to lead their agitation.
The idea is to strengthen the base of a combination that would form the nucleus of a political front to defeat the National Democratic Alliance headed by the BJP. The neo Mandal movement, which is sought to be started, would also ensure that the backwards in particular assert themselves as a political force so that they are able to dent the vote base of the ruling combination in key states, particularly those with a large number of MPs. The battleground states have been identified and the process for implementation of the formula has been initiated.
The move is inspired by an experiment carried out successfully by the late Chaudhary Charan Singh to offset the Congress’ hold in Uttar Pradesh in the 1960s and 1970s, wherein he united the Muslims, Ahirs, Jats, Gurjars and Rajputs by his “Majgar” formula. Subsequently, the various castes that helped Charan Singh also became politically significant in the post Mandal era at the expense of the Congress. The supreme irony is that during the UPA regime, the Congress too was forced to give power to the OBCs to consolidate its gains. For example, if Rajasthan had Ashok Gehlot as the CM, Haryana had Bhupinder Singh Hooda. The party was compelled to appoint Siddaramaiah as the CM in Karnataka and backed Madhu Koda in Jharkhand some years ago. Incidentally, at the same time, Bihar and UP were governed by Nitish Kumar and Akhilesh Yadav, also backwards.
Political strategists feel that a larger coalition subsequently weaved around the neo Mandal movement would be a potent and effective manner to halt the saffron march in the country. It would also help in assisting Nitish Kumar to offer a strong challenge to PM Modi. Kumar’s eventual emergence would ensure that “secular” parties such as the Congress, Samajwadi Party and the Left would have no option but to back the Bihar Chief Minister. In political terms, it would imply that the Congress would be relegated to a secondary position and its primary leader Rahul Gandhi would have to wait in the wings while the electoral political confrontation takes place on the country’s centre stage in 2019. Nitish Kuma’s rise is also being seen in Congress circles as a conscious and well calculated strategy by his key aide Prashant Kishor, who, incidentally, is also advising the Congress in UP and Punjab. If the plan succeeds, it would help Kumar and those supporting him, while the sad story of the Congress would continue for some more time thereafter. It would also give an opportunity to Prashant Kishor’s detractors to attack him for working for Nitish Kumar by hurting Rahul’s overall interests.
“In the ‘third front’, Nitish Kumar is right now the tallest leader and he knows that. He is looking to emerge ‘big’ on the national platform and come out as the single largest leader of the third front. He is looking at a situation where other parties will come to him when the right time comes. With Congress nowhere in the picture and the Samajwadi Party becoming weak, Nitish Kumar feels that his time will come sooner than later. Nitish Kumar joined a demonstration at Dumka in Jharkhand to support the demand of Jharkhand Vikas Morcha for jobs to the tribals displaced by different industrial projects. The former CM of Jharkhand, Babu Lal Marandi had invited him to join the day-long sit-in. Nitish Kumar’s prohibition agenda is also a step towards this as it has brought him substantial support of women voters”, a Patna based senior JDU leader said.