The Bharatiya Janata Party is trying to get into a system of “enhanced cooperation” with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) to get a foothold in Tamil Nadu politics, post the demise of state Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa.
The BJP believes that Dravidian politics, which has held sway in the state for 50 years, is slowly losing its grip on Tamil Nadu and political space is gradually getting created for national parties—the BJP specifically. The Congress, another national party, has lost the pockets of influence it had in Tamil Nadu. The BJP has been trying to get a foothold in Tamil Nadu for a long time. It wanted to forge an alliance with the AIADMK ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and later the Assembly elections this year, but J. Jayalalithaa did not show any interest, although she kept on supporting the BJP-led NDA government on many occasions in Parliament.
According to a BJP leader, the political vacuum created after her death, coupled with another political force, DMK’s internal rifts, gives the party an opportunity to make inroads in the state. DMK is in a bad shape. Its patriarch M. Karunanidhi is 93 years old, and the party is torn between two primary factions, one headed by his younger son M.K. Stalin, the successor to the “throne”, and another led by elder son M.K. Alagiri. The Congress, on the other hand, does not have any state leader or cadre of consequence ever since it was uprooted by the Dravidian parties 50 years ago. The BJP, he said, may not win any elections in the near future, but it will definitely become a “player” in Tamil Nadu politics.
Since the state will not have any elections in the near future, the BJP is not in a hurry to strike an electoral understanding or alliance, sources said. But there will be “enhanced cooperation” between the AIADMK and the BJP. This will be mutually beneficial. It will make it “easy” for new Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam to run his government smoothly, while the BJP will continue to get support from this southern party in Parliament. AIADMK has 37 MPs in the Lok Sabha and 13 members in the Rajya Sabha.
“Tamil Nadu politics is going through a phase of transition. The AIADMK is without a charismatic leader. The DMK is witnessing an internal feud. This being the situation, it appears that Dravidian politics will be over soon. There is a vacuum at present. A space has been created. It has to be seen as to who and how one is going to utilise it. What will be the role of the national parties? All this has to be seen,” said the BJP leader.
Scoffing at the speculation of a possible split in the AIADMK, the BJP leader was categorical that they would not allow that to happen: “The BJP is not in favour of a split. And whenever any party ruling a state gets support from the Central government, the chances of a split are minimised. Though their opponent DMK would like to see the AIADMK split, that is not going to happen.”
Sources said that the BJP would watch how AIADMK runs the government for the next four years. “This is a big issue. Though they have the capacity, they lack an acceptable and acknowledged face like Jayalalithaa’s. Running the government transparently and without corruption will be a big challenge for them. They have to prove that they can run the government efficiently. We will have to see how they evolve in the coming days,” said sources.
When contacted, BJP’s national general secretary in charge of Tamil Nadu, P. Muralidhar Rao, said: “We have always been keen to increase our visibility in the state. As Dravidian politics is on the wane, we will make every attempt to find a space there. But that’s not an easy task. We will have to work hard. But one thing is certain, ignoring BJP in Tamil Nadu is not possible anymore.”
Rao also said that AIADMK, under Jayalalithaa, was quite supportive of the NDA government and “we would like this support and cooperation to increase further”. “The AIADMK leaders know that the BJP is a dependable ally. They do not have any animosity towards us. I think there will be more cooperation between the two in future, which will be good for the state,” said Rao.
As of now, there is no clarity as to who would lead the AIADMK. Sources said that Jayalalithaa’s close aide, V.K. Sasikala may be elected the party’s general secretary eventually. Soon after senior AIADMK leader Ponnaiyan made an appeal to the public not to believe in rumours of Sasikala’s ascension as the next party chief, leaders such as K.A. Sengottaiyan, Valarmathi, S. Gokula Indira and others met Sasikala requesting her to take the reins of the party.
According to a Chennai-based source, this scenario was “almost expected”. “Newspaper advertisements are coming out requesting Sasikala to take charge of the party. AIADMK leaders are talking about it. A mindset is being created. It will be interesting to see how the party handles this transition,” he said.
A BJP source said that they are monitoring the political developments in Tamil Nadu “very closely”. “It appears that the DMK may work from outside to create confusion within the AIADMK and effect a split. But the BJP would not like such a situation. Right now, our focus is on stability in the state,” he said.
Speaking to this newspaper, BJP president of the Tamil Nadu unit, Tamilisai Soundararajan said: “Whoever becomes the leader of the AIADMK is their internal matter. We are only concerned that the people of the state do not get affected and that development work continues. We have already made it clear that the Centre will extend full cooperation to the state government. So government-to-government relationship will continue. But in case the AIADMK government takes any ‘anti-people’ steps, we will definitely condemn that. Right now, our focus is on stability.”
On the political vacuum created in the state, Tamilisai Soundararajan said, “Dravidian politics was thriving on money. Now after demonetisation there will be control. A space has been created in Tamil Nadu and it is high time for national parties to capture this space. We are consistently working to strengthen our base and now we are trying to occupy this space. BJP would like to become a viable alternative to the Dravidian forces. It is a challenging task. But we will do it.” She said that in the byelections last month, the party got more votes than actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth’s DMDK, and came third after AIADMK and DMK, which indicates the “minds are changing” in Tamil Nadu.