On 2 December, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and United States President-elect Donald Trump engaged in a phone conversation, which marked the first publicly reported phone call between a leader of Taiwan and a US President or President-elect, since Washington switched diplomatic recognition from the Republic of China (ROC) to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1979.This call has not only come as a surprise to Beijing, but also played an important role in the future development of the trilateral relations among Taipei, Washington and Beijing.
According to the press release from Taiwan’s Presidential Office, during the conversation, President Tsai first congratulated Mr Trump on his election victory as US President, and they “shared their views and principles regarding key policy matters, particularly the need to promote domestic economic development and strengthen national defense so that citizens can enjoy better lives and increased security.” She also hopes the US will “continue to support Taiwan in its quest for more opportunities to participate in international affairs and make contributions”. President-elect Trump also congratulated President Tsai on becoming President of Taiwan earlier this year.
Once revealed, the phone call has been widely reported by the local and international media. It is alleged that founder of the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, Edwin Feulner, played a crucial role in arranging the hotline. Stephen Yates, former Deputy National Security Adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney and currently an adviser to Trump, was said to be responsible for setting up the historic call. However, he denied this during his visit to Taiwan last week, and said it was Trump’s transition team who arranged the call.
In response to the call, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the phone call was seen as an act of provocation and a “petty manoeuvre by the Taiwan side”, and “the ‘one China’ policy is the cornerstone of a healthy China-US relationship.” In addition, China’s foreign ministry lodged a complaint with the US over the call, as it was a breach of diplomatic protocol between the US and China. China also called upon Trump’s incoming administration to deal with matters related to Taiwan “cautiously and properly” to avoid “unnecessary interference” in China-US relationship.
Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, is considered a renegade province by the Chinese government since Chiang Kai-shek lost the fight against the Chinese Communist Party and relocated the nationalist government from China to Taiwan in 1949. After that, both the ROC and the PRC claim itself to be the “authentic Chinese entity”. However, the ROC lost its representation in the United Nations in 1971 due to Resolution 2798. Though the official name of the ROC can still be found in Article 23 and Article 110 of the Charter of the United Nations, most of the countries in the world recognise the PRC as the entity that rules the Chinese mainland.
In 1979, during President Jimmy Carter’s term, the US severed official ties with the ROC and recognised the PRC. Shortly after, both chambers of the United States Congress adopted the Taiwan Relations Act, which serves as the cornerstone of US-Taiwan relations, defines the substantial but non-diplomatic relations, and requires the US to “provide Taiwan arms of a dismissive nature”.
Furthermore, in 1982, President Ronald Reagan adopted the “Six Assurances”, which stipulated that the US would not alter the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act, and not set a date for termination of arms sales to Taiwan. As a result, the US remains one of the most important allies to Taiwan despite the lack of official relations. To some, Taiwan is considered the “most recognised unrecognised country” to the US.
Over the years, Taiwan has developed close economic, trade and cultural ties with the US, but it does not change the fact that the US follows the “One China” policy when dealing with cross-strait affairs. However, there are stringent restrictions on the high-level mutual visits. Taiwan’s Presidents and high ranking officials cannot visit Washington DC, and are only allowed to make quiet transits in the US on their way to Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in Central or South America.
Known for his love for Twitter, at 8:44 am on 3 December, President-elect Trump tweeted, “The President of Taiwan CALLED ME today to wish me congratulations on winning the Presidency. Thank you!” This showed his positive attitudes toward the call. It is worth noting that in less than an hour, he tweeted, “Interesting how the U.S. sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call.” The phone call and the tweets apparently broke away from the traditional protocol and the principle of US-Taiwan relations: low-key and surprise-free.
In an editorial, the Global Times, a Chinese newspaper controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, expressed that “Mainland China can take away several of Taiwan’s ‘diplomatic allies’, so the Taiwan society can see that that’s the price of the phone call between Tsai and Trump.”
President Tsai Ing-wen, also chair of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has faced daunting challenges and great pressure from China since she took office on 20 May this year. Without recognising the existence of the “1992 Consensus”, which means both sides of the Taiwan Strait recognise there is only one “China”, but agree to interpret the meaning of what one China is according to their own definition, the Tsai administration has faced great difficulties and obstacles.
For example, the Chinese government has limited the number of Chinese tourists to Taiwan, thereby causing a huge blow to Taiwan’s tourism industry. Official cross-strait communication channels have all been suspended. Taiwan’s participation in international organisations such as the International Civil Aviation Organization and the United Nations Convention on Climate Change has been blocked. Just when cross-strait ties hit a new low, this phone call has brought greater uncertainty for the Tsai administration.
During the presidential campaign, Trump’s attitude towards China was not all friendly. He vowed to bring back jobs to the US, negotiate new trade deals and impose heavier taxes on Chinese products. While trying to make the US “great again”, as he promised, Trump has to figure out how to deal with China on several major issues, such as the disputes in the South China Sea, the North Korea nuclear threats, and the sluggish global economy.
Currently, only 22 countries in the world maintains formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan. However, Taiwan plays an indispensable role in the global supply chain. With a population of 23 million, Taiwan is the ninth largest trading partner to the US. More importantly, Taiwan is an open and free democracy, and is considered “a beacon of democracy to Asia and the world”. Located in the first island chain, Taiwan has a unique geopolitical significance in East Asia. However, the importance of Taiwan has often been overlooked and this phone call has brought Taiwan back to the centre of global attention.
Nevertheless, the military threat from China is real. Over the past two weeks, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched two drills by sending its military aircraft to fly over the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines, and circled the international airspace surrounding Taiwan, and this is just one minor example. On top of that, China has deployed over 1,000 missiles targeting Taiwan. No one knows when Beijing would run out of patience. Thus, it is vital for Taiwan to strengthen its self-defence capability. Though the US is an ally, Taiwan cannot rely solely on the goodwill of others.
Just last week, the US Senate adopted a conference report of the fiscal 2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that allows US Assistant Defense Secretary or above to visit Taiwan, and vice versa. This breakthrough indeed is inspiring news to Taiwan, and Taiwan is eager to purchase the necessary arms to safeguard its national security. If the deals are approved, the defense industry can generate tens of thousands of jobs in the US, which is in line with Trump’s campaign promise of job creation, thereby creating a win-win scenario for Taiwan and the US.
So, what is the next step for Taiwan? It is expressly understood that one phone call would not change the status quo of the complicated global political roadmap, but it does mark the beginning of a new status quo. It is alleged that President Tsai will make a transit in US and might even meet with President-elect Trump in New York on her way to Nicaragua. However, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister David Lee publicly declined such a statement and stressed that President Tsai would not make a stopover in New York, not to mention meet with Mr Trump. In any case, the world is watching how the two leaders will interact in the future, and what actions China might take in response. Will there be more phone calls or even a meeting? The result will be revealed in a month.
Betty Chen is the East Asia Special Correspondent for The Sunday Guardian.