Cosmo Films will reach Rs 435 in six months

Cosmo Films will reach Rs 435 in six months

By Rajiv Kapoor | 3 December, 2017

Cosmo Films Ltd is a global leader in speciality films for packaging, lamination and labelling applications. The company manufactures BOPP films, cast polypropylene films and advanced BOPET films. It is the country’s largest exporter of BOPP films and with the acquisition of GBC Commercial Print, it has become the largest producer of thermal laminating film in the world. Cosmo Films has state of the art manufacturing facilities spread across India, US and Korea. The packaging industry has experienced rapid growth globally as a result of greater innovation and customer preferences for global brands. Packaging sales in the emerging market are expected to show a strong growth momentum as both increased consumption and demand for consumer goods drives the need for more sophisticated packaging. The Indian packaging industry has registered a robust growth at a CAGR of 15% during the last five years and is estimated to achieve $32 billion annual sales turnover by 2025. In the packaging industry, processed food packaging represents 48% of total sales, personal care packaging accounts for 27%, while others account for the balance. A number of significant trends are driving rapid change across the industry, such as increased presence of global multinational companies, consumer brand awareness and purchasing confidence. The demand for smaller and flexible packaging is also increasing due to increase in per capita income, urbanisation and a growing number of working women. Furthermore, the e-commerce industry in the country has substantially expanded and is changing the packaging needs and driving requirements for appealing packaging solutions. The packaging industry in India is in a bright spot, given India’s per capita consumption of packaging is only 4.3 kg, whereas in Asian countries such as China and Taiwan it is about 6 kg and 19 kg, respectively. This clearly indicates that the market is largely untapped and with the addition of demand from industries like cement, this will contribute to the overall growth of the industry. GST implementation would also benefit supply chain efficiency for FMCG companies and there will be a cost reduction in terms of transportation and storage of goods. Therefore, any reduction in cost and taxes would make consumer goods cheaper, which is a positive development for the packaging industry as a whole. Globally, BOPP films have the largest market share within the flexible packaging segment. Currently, production of BOPP films in India is estimated at approximately 570k MT per annum.

Cosmo Films has progressed well in implementing its long term manufacturing strategy with efficient capacity creation. The newly installed BOPP line, which started commercial production in February this year, is expected to add an additional 25% production volume in FY2018. The company has also announced a plan to commission a new BOPET line, which is expected to contribute significantly to the overall margins and volume. The company is focusing on value added films which have higher margins and a strong pipeline to meet the ever changing requirements of the customers. Cosmo Films also has a successful approach towards research and development, allowing it to innovate customer centric products continuously. Earnings per share of the company for FY2018 is seen at Rs 48, with PAT expected to grow at a healthy CAGR of over 30% in the next few years. At the current market price of Rs 350, the stock P/E is 7.34 for FY18 against the industry aggregate P/E of 25, leaving ample room for the Cosmo stock to appreciate. Hence, the stock can be accumulated at the present level with a medium term perspective to a target price of Rs 435 in six months’ time frame.

Rajiv Kapoor is a share broker, certified mutual fund expert and MDRT insurance agent.

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