Opposition seeks to script 2017 turnaround

Opposition seeks to script 2017 turnaround

By M.D. Nalapat | 6 August, 2016
Had NDA started prosecuting Congress leaders from 2014, Congress , at worst, wouldn’t have cooperated in Parliament, which it didn’t anyway.

Both India as well as the Opposition parties (and Congress in particular) have gained from the passage of the GST Bill, the latter because passage was in August 2016 rather than in 2014 or early 2015. After Parliament’s approval, there will be a year of adjustment, including getting the measure ratified by enough state Assemblies so that it forms part of the Constitution of India. Once the full parameters are drawn up and implemented, what follows will be two years of painful reconfiguration before the economy exhibits the benefits of what is indeed a reform that in its scale compares with the changes in the industrial licensing policy that were made by then Industries Minister (and concurrently Prime Minister) Narasimha Rao in 1992. In contrast, the UPA oversaw a flood of imports into India, especially from Europe, a continent that received special treatment during the Manmohan decade, and which policy helped lead to the severe financial strains the country began showing from the close of 2007 onwards, when the ill effects of a “Foreigner First” policy framework began to course through the economy. The 2009 Lok Sabha polls were won by the Congress party and its allies because the effects of their toxic governance had not yet begun to manifest themselves in the way they did by 2011. And had Narendra Modi been the PM candidate of the BJP in 2009, that party may not have secured a majority on its own, but would certainly have emerged as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha.

By the close of 2012, the Congress president had become a liability for her party. The Congress would have seen its seat tally cross into three digits in 2014 had Rahul Gandhi got installed that year as the PM in place of Manmohan. The latter was seen as obedient to the point of servitude to Sonia Gandhi, and visibly ineffective in managing “his” team. However, once defeated, the Congress appears to have re-discovered its thinking cap, for example, by (a) ensuring that the GST Bill got passed so late into Modi’s term that its political benefits would accrue to the combination winning the 2019 polls, rather than to the existing government, and (b) demanding lower GST rates while the BJP constantly hints at high rates. Once the Modi government increases GST rates, the ruling party will lose a substantial portion of public sympathy, while the Congress will gain due to its call for an 18% cap.

If Sonia Gandhi became toxic to most voters by 2012, Narendra Modi concurrently emerged not merely as the most credible anti-Sonia politician, but also as the most potent antidote to the policies that Sonia Gandhi’s government was following. By the start of 2013, most voters accepted as fact the BJP’s incessant cry of the UPA government being a collection of the corrupt. However, since coming into office on 26 May 2014, there has not even been an FIR filed against any senior member of the Manmohan Singh Cabinet, much less a prosecution. Even action against those ministers which had been initiated under the UPA appears to have slowed. This is being touted by the Congress as “proof” that the many BJP allegations made in the past of their misconduct were mere political hyperbole. Sonia Gandhi has indeed been having to face a spot of bother over National Herald, but that has been due to an individual acting in his private capacity and not the government. Had the newly installed Modi government launched prosecutions in 2014 itself of top all-India leaders of the Congress, the worst that could have happened was precisely what took place: Congress non-cooperation in Parliament.

Among Manmohan Singh’s handicaps during 2004-2009 was the perception that his party would lose in 2009. Had the official machinery believed then that the Congress would return to office for a second term, their response to commands for efficiency would have been better. But by 2011, it was clear that this would be Manmohan Singh’s last term and that Congress was on the way out. As yet, voters still believe that Narendra Modi will ensure for himself a second term. The success of PM Modi’s government depends on a perception of BJP success in 2019 continuing for the remainder of his current five-year term. Equally, such a perception itself hinges on Modi’s success in demonstrably steering the country in a very different way than his predecessor. Nowadays, the BJP organisation seems over reliant on the official machinery to deal with its opponents, chiefly through arrests and similar other actions carried out through Central agencies. But this is a country where prison has had an aura of sacrifice since Mahatma Gandhi’s time, and whether it be Hardik Patel or Kanhaiya, or indeed the Aam Aadmi Party MLAs who are getting rounded up with such frequency, such administrative steps will only ensure a rise rather than a collapse in the AAP’s popularity and drive it with greater force to Goa and Gujarat. Minimum government implies minimal reliance on colonial laws, as it does a dramatic reduction in the many bureaucratic obstacles to a citizen’s freedom of choice in work or leisure. For the BJP to regain traction as the antidote to UPA-style governance, the policies and practices embraced by the likes of Chidambaram and Sibal need to be seen to be reversed.

In 2012, the political winds were blowing Advantage BJP. However, unless that party’s organisational wing follows a political strategy suited to India’s increasing numbers of 21st century mindset people, 2017 may witness—and this may at the moment sound as incredible as this columnist’s 2006 forecast of Modi being the next PM—an Advantage Opposition breeze that could develop into a gale as the country heads towards the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It is time for Modi to make his government much more “Modified” than at present.


There are 32 Comments

After winning elections, BJP has a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Modi is over reliant on so called strategists in his party who convinced him that they can cajole the Congress through magnanimity, networking and concessions. The people believed Modi's high promises and therefore gave him a resounding mandate but he went soft and back tracked on promises like black money and going after the corrupt. Shades of Vajpayee and Advani, who became part of the Delhi circuit, due to their long residence. As the saying goes 'the more things change, the more they remain the same'. The system wins, the people lose.

I too believe that the projection of a jaded LK Advani in 2009 cost the BJP a stab at power.

BJP should honestly prosecute already jaded opposition oldies as they don`t have left any stuff/youth left in them. They have seen to it that they have left no 2nd in command! But their ability to inflict harm to Modi is incredible. Awrdwapasi platform, Dadri platform, Intolerance platforms, Fanning fear among minorities platform, creating anti dalit platforms, J& K platform, Bollywood platform, TV Channel platform, High price Dal platform, Support naxal platform, Mayawati platform.They will create new anti platforms 1 by 1 as the time nears 2019 elections. I expect large number of anti platforms by 2018 up & ready! NDA need to have a invisible strategy group who stratagizes at super sonic speed and destroys the platforms within 1 week of its birth! Therefore it is imperative that trouble makers oldi baldie rascals are rounded up and put behind bars quickly!

PM Modi is opposite to Gujrat CM Modi. This modi is worst than MMS. He relies highly on back stabber AJ. In UPA MMS used to be PM and SG super PM. In NDA modi is PM and AJ is super PM. Modi is like "Dhapor Shankh" just keep promising but no delivery.

PM Modi is opposite to Gujrat CM Modi. This modi is worst than MMS. He relies highly on back stabber AJ. In UPA MMS used to be PM and SG super PM. In NDA modi is PM and AJ is super PM. Modi is like "Dhapor Shankh" just keep promising but no delivery.

Being Chief Minsister is different from Prime Minister of a Complex Nation like ours, as such Modi has been tactfully and deftly handling the complex issues with lots of maturity. Had he been aggressive in relegating Opposition bandwagon; he would have been projected like the one with regressive mindset and that would have been advantageous to Congress gaining sympathy for decades to come. This was the mistake done by Janata Party in mid 1970s and hence within 2 years started seeing fissures and had finally collapsed. Indian viters have become highly matured enough for Modi to be given another chance in 2019 and he will realize sooner than later the necessity of pushing unelected heroes to stable and make the governance more responsible enough to push the Nationalistic agenda forward. Congress is gone case for the present and opposition is totally in disunited condition and hence Modi has some more time to maneuver and once in power again in the next term 2019 all Congi black sheep will be fixed for good. Even cleansing of Judiciary is of paramount importance, however, very delicately. There is no doubt Judiciary is the saviour of democracy but only when competent matured highly knowledgeable had been elevated rather than mediocres with political pushing. Executive system has started getting cleansed. Systems are slowly landing in place. A long lull bureaucracy has started getting out of slumber and act proactively. Minsiters are accountable to the tasks set in their ministries. Hence Ache Din aneka umeed rakhsakhte hein! God bless NaMo! Jai Hind.

I agree with you totally. Congress should be given slow, mature and tactful death. Any adventurism of scoring points - and Congress might come out with gameplan that noone can think of. Judiciary as you rightly pointed out also became big stooge and had been very anti govt., anti Modi such much that good advices of PM were taken as obstruction. So slow and steady with firmness is the right approach.

I entirely agree. But I fault Modi for his total relience on and undue empowerment of AJ. Actually, AJ is a mill stone around Modi's neck. But Modi seems blind to that fact. Unless he dumps AJ, Modi wont be able to gallop on at the pace needed to win the next election.

"But Modi seems blind to that fact. " Not really. Modiji is much smarter than that. He must have some internal political compulsions that we would never be able to fathom. A person who single-handedly fought an army of enemies from 2002 to 2014 and vanquished all his detractors can neve be blind to anything around him. He has to bid his time. Modiji fits the title of a James Hadley Chase thriller: The Vulture is a Patient Bird.

I am so glad you brought maturity to the discussion. Typically, people of Bharat are more emotional than logical and vent out their frustrations without understanding that politics is like a game of chess, where only a serious student of the game can foresee future course of action based on a current move. I see this trait in NRIs here in the USA too. They were all gung-ho about Modiji before 2014 and now have now become critics of Modiji and expert analysts on defense, Kashmir, AAP, economy, Islamic terrorism, Ram Mandir, Gau Rakshak and everything under the sun! Most of the commentators think that they are smarter than and know more than Modiji. They wouldn't last an hour in his shoes. Modiji has to make haste slowly and he is doing extremely well. So-called BJP supporters who are naysayers are the real problem for Modiji, not only the opposition.

Modi did not do enough to nail Congress Govt. soon after he assumed power and if sends congressis to Jail they would develop an aura - looks like a paradox. The political pundits also are clueless what should be done. I would say to stem the ill effects of GST Modiji should roll out GST as a law only after 2019 win - before that he has to ensure it continues its journey in various states and other legislative cobweb.

UPA II win was completely because of the BJP overstatement of the "weak PM" reference to Dr Manmohan Singh. The more than required repetition of this phrase by LKA forced Sonia Gandhi to openly endorse Dr. MANMOHAN singh's continuance as PM if UPA wins. This scuttled Sonia's strategy to insert RG post election. Had LKAfocussed on the misgovernance of UPA rather than the weakness of Dr Manmohan Singh, the results would have been BJPs favor. The other factor went against LKA was his own manipulative politics within BJP when Atalji was in power. LKAs shift from a hardcore Sang Parivar flag bearer to a Secular image through his comment on Jinnah also demotivated the grassroot workers. Modi's task in 2019 will be tougher than 2014. If in 2014, Modi had the baggage of 2012 and a lack of national popularity, 2019 will be completely on his promised delivery of 60 years worth development in 60 months. I was talking to a friend recently returned from a vacation to India. Though there is talk about so many things, things haven't started touching the ordinary people's life. Corruption at local level is still the same, price of essential commodities is a matter of concern. Employment generation to the youth is still to be happening. On top of this, the survival instinct will unite the opposition parties. The only way Modi can win 2019 is going rural and substantially increasing the BJP vote share. Ignore the netas, get close to the people, touch the ordinary people's life then people will remember in the polling booth. 9L3F

What's 9L3F?

I don't think Modi is an idiot,His first act after assuming office as PM is to bring in Jaitley which to me is clear sign that Modi has made pact with same crooks in industry and a signal to crooks in UPA that they can heave a sign of relief as government will not pursue any corruption and loot of public wealth during their corrupt tenure.His 2 year rule is full of headlines which has very little impact in the lives of lower,middle class.Infact his tax and spend idiotic approach will only make him a bigger failure than MMS.If India has to progress, its corrupt ways has to end starting with corrupt laws which protect crooks,reduced taxation,transparant public spend with full accountability and exhortation of each state government to toe central government line in the areas of administration and reduction in corruption.Wield a carrot and stick policy when it comes to state governments run by opposition and wield only stick if it involves state governments of BJP.People need to see a difference in administration at ground level.Modi should stop his frequent flyer miles and concentrate on spending more time in the country.Visit as frequently as possible north east,east,UP/Bihar which are languishing due to poor governance and high degree of lawlessness.Insist that they need to clean their act,lay down clear rules which are measurable for their performance.Let the external country issues be handled thro' MEA.India has nothing much to offer to world at the moment nor does it have any muscle to make others listen.Even a tiny Maldives can raise a middle finger to us and get by all due to bunch of grandiose idiots who ruled us ( barring a short period in Narasimharao's govt) since independence.Let us get our internal act together before venturing outside.Indians rightly felt that election of Modi is the second independence but to our horror, we seem to have elected a cut out eating out of the hand of un electable jaitley..

I nominate you for the post of Super PM a.k.a. the Keeper of the Magic Wand a.k.a. His Highness the Dictator. I recommend Modiji resign and become your disciple. Long live the new King.

No one can fault Modi with sincererity, will n depth of his vision. But he doesn't have the team of ministers n babus to match his 'pace'. Lutyens' entrenched interest group, comprising of Cong n BJP ministers, babus, business /media house n commission agents r the biggest detractors of Modi n his ways of governance. They have high stakes in Modi's failure. 'Na khane dunga...' is hurting the Lutyens' mafia most. New to Delhi politics, Modi is taking time to neutralise Trojans, within BJP n without, who r well dug-in in Lutyens. AJ, Naidu, SS of BJP, AP n other cronies of Sonia, big industrial houses n their agents lurking in corridors of power r yet to be 'fully' neutralized. V have seen govt getting a bloody nose in courts due to nincompoop AG n legal team having allegiance to AJ. AJ SS RNS &VN r perceived to have kept Dr Swamy away from Govt. He is the only person of international Outlook n stature. 2019 will see retun of Modi, but BJP will keep losing states due to Arrogance of Amit Shah n visionless economy under AJ. Middle class is getting restless with FM. Even OROP, launched halfbaked, has been converted into negativity by FM n his babus. 7thCPC having made OROP applicable to all central govt employees, soldiers n veterans feel cheated as nothing distinguishes them from babus, who retire at 60, can be promoted till last day of their service n stay with families. On the other hand 90%soldiers n Offrs retire by 38 n 54yr, have little scope for promotion due pyramid structure n stay in difficult areas maintaining two establishments. Restarting second profession is difficult as norms of working n integrity r different. Early sacking of UPA bagage among babus n BJP is key to Modi's success. Key responsibilities to Dr Swamy will be in his, BJP's n national interest.

BJP snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the matter of OROP. To put it mildly, Arun Jaitley is a no hoper. BJP uses the shining name of the armed forces to plead for votes but in action behaves deplorably, treating them like beggars. Where Swamy is concerned, the opposition is more worried about him than Modi now. But what will happen if he were made FM one can only speculate. People hoped Modi will do something based on his Gujarat record and tall promises but he has been a disappointment thus far. Modi seems to be over whelmed.

when BJP was was voted to power with sufficient mandate, due to good governance, anti corruption n Hindutva platform, we the patriotic public thought it will be a different ruler..alas all our hopes have been shattered or going down hill with passage of time. some times we begin to feel that it is the same con congress at work through the trojans of bjp...nothing less in fact much more.. FROM DAY ONE THE MANAGEMENT OF BJP SHOULD HAVE GONE AFTER THE CORRUPTS OF ALL PARTIES ESPECIALLY THE CON CONGS..now that Golden Opportunity is lost.. with that the momentum...like in any warfare or in a sumo wrestling bout..unless the bjp pulls up its socks n girds up loins once more with anti corrupt fighters like Dr.Subramanian Swamy n like minded persons like Gen.VK Singh,Yogi Adityanath,persons with some iota of moral strength,they might as well sign away future elections...and be condemned to lead a sub servient miserable life led by trojans like aj n his con cong gang...

Enough of BJP should and Modiji should. Let us ask ourselves, What would/could I do in my daily life to help Modiji's vision besides being active on the social media. If all the bloggers and people who comment on newspaper websites, write on Facebook and tweet were to spend the same amount of time at the ground level "doing things", the picture would be different. You are right "Opportunity Lost" but not by BJP or Modiji but by the people of our country who do not want to lift a finger, who don't want to stop giving or taking bribe, who do not want to make swachchh Bharat a way of life, who do not want to follow any traffic discipline and who only want to criticise the government.

What of two years in the life of a nation ? Not much of significance. Public good even if later is always better than never. Democracies are not made up of an Act or two. Political parties, PM's and paupers, ideologues and ignoramuses, dumbos and intellectuals are all co-equal. Electorate like the monsoon is unpredictable, mostly. Judiciary ie rule of law , law enforcement ie police, administration ie babudom in that the promotions are on auto pilot, catastrophes are everyday happening but accountability is never asked or answered are some of the banes of India today. GST, is an acronym of which the majority of people have not a clue about. The delay was caused by the unrepresentative Rajya Sabha. Manmohan Singh ,PM for decade remained MP Assam in the upper house. Nobody wondered if he could utter a simple sentence in Assamese. In contradistinction Lok Sabha is the the most transparent and representative of the will of the people but or therefore, its members are often held in contempt, unfairly. Indian constitution has too many anomalies. It needs a robust overhaul. In 65 years constitution has been amended nearly twice a year. Why not amend it more ? Our laws written by Mcaulay were sanctioned by the British Parliament. Judiciary in that vain loves its Latin but does not know how to pronounce prima facie. And where do they teach Latin. This is the month of our Independence. From where do we celebrate it ? Lal Qila, the erstwhile fort and residence of Shah Jahan. Come January we'll celebrate our Republic Day from King's Way called Raj Path, the to and from the Viceroy's House called Rashtrapati Bhavan. And where do the scoundrels live ? Lutyens' Delhi. There is not a single architectural marvel in Delhi which is our own. This too matters.

PM Modi is a politician first and a reformer later. He has to ensure BJP victory in 2019, no matter what. This country needs reforms but can wait. We need more of populist decisions now and then as we Indian are plagued with Short Term Memory Loss. On the contrary , Kejriwal who won elections as a reformer has transformed into a politician ( though I consider it as downgrading oneself ) , PM should learn a lesson from him. He should keep his middle class and neo middle class happy else he will get 3 F - Failure From Friends.

There are so many open and shut corruption cases but Modi Sarkar has not acted against any one. There were more prosecution during UPA rule but in Modi's time no progress. Even case that were under prosecution have stopped!!! I just wonder why? Why? Do not know but Why?

"There are so many open and shut corruption cases". Please list them for our benefit. Since you call them "open and shut", it should be fair to assume that you have the legal expertise to prove those cases in a court of law and bring a conviction. Please educate us about your legal credentials and past successes. "Even case that were under prosecution have stopped!!! I" Again this means you have kept a watch on progress or lack thereof of such cases. Please list and give details. If you do the above, then people will take your comments seriously; otherwise, they would consider it like so many others, just a hyperbole of no consequence.

In 2019 BJP will and lose majority in Parliament. More than present tally of chrislamist will be in Parliament. Conversion by coercion would be the order of the day. - Modi's failure in bringing back black money,not punishing even a single scamster will dearly cost them. AJ would join Congress and take over reins from Sonia.

I bow to the high and mighty astrologer, or should I say, Nostradamus?

AJ needs to replaced as soon as possible as FM. An economist like Dr.Swamy would do wonders in pushing the economy further to grow at 10% as he is always hopeful of if certain steps arw taken. He's a man of keeping his words unlike most mordern day politicians. With him being in the cabinet he can easily control the ED to prosecute Mr.Chidamabaram, Sonia and co. Who now enjoy the virtual backing of Jaitley theu his soft Congress policy. I am not a big fan of the BJP although I am impressed by the commanding power of N Modi which ofcourse is because of the brute strength in LS. If N Modi were to repeat the success again in 2019, I don't see any other way other than bringing someone like Dr.Swamy who has frank intentions of changing the system and prosecuting corrupt congress leaders.

People have already seen through Jumlas. This is a Govt by poorly selected Western advisers who sees every thing as "RoKda". See the new media line. Concessons given to public in railways are termed as losses. Do not insult people Mr Prabhu and company? Our constitution says this country is a socialist democratic republic. If you have the ability please change it before coming out with such insults. The fact is that People in this Govt are enjoying the good Lutyens life and System. Gains made by few hard working ministers will be neutralised by the baffonery of the rest. Jairam Ramesh's words in parliament may be proven during next elections unless they can make their Jumla promises true.

Sour grapes, huh? "This is a Govt by poorly selected Western advisers" Oh, really? I though we had a nationwide election where millions of people voted, not a selection. Unless each of the voters who voted for the BJP was bribed individually by the 'Western advisers.' I campaigned in 2014 election and alas, no one came to me with an offer of a bribe! Get off the mindset of government freebies. Those days are gone for good and thank God for that. That Socialist democratic mambo jumbo was added to the preamble of the constitution during the dictatorial emergency by Mrs. Indir Gandhi to thwart the Hindus and please the Commies. Enough of the free lunch and subsidies. You have suddenly realized that there is a Lutyen's Delhi. Where were you when Congress goons were in Lutyen's Delhi for 65 years? Jairam Ramesh is, at the end of the day a boot licker of the Italian Madam. He may blabber all he wants. Only a few disgruntled people care for what he says.

Overt prosecution of dynasts can help Congress in coming out with new sets of more competent leaders.Modi ,BJP may be happy with the way Sonia,Rahul and the family is "leading" Congress.If they continue like this and if all Behenjis remain bogged down in their states and Nitish keeps fighting jungleraj and Kejriwal keeps indulging in his antics, BJP & Modi does not have to do much to win 2019. 2017 could in fact could be the year for BJP to gather momentum by showing results and winning few elections.

modi should discard immediately '"sadgun vikruti"" and send congrss leaders packing to tihar jail

Mr Modi seems seem to be blissfully unaware of the problems created by some of his own party men who are surreptitiously thwarting the commitments made by Mr Modi himself . Let wisdom dawn up on him, because people question his intention to fulfill his commitment to nation, especially on black money issue and corruption of UPA leaders.

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