The outcome of the Assembly polls in five states is expected to have wide ranging ramifications for national politics. However, the results in Punjab would have an extremely significant relevance for the Congress and its future. A victory in the state would re-energise the party, which has been facing one setback after the other and, therefore, a defeat would precipitate a major crisis leading to yet another exodus nationally from the Congress. An adverse outcome would also tantamount to the rejection of the Gandhis who have been holding on to their positions despite repeated reverses.
Those who follow Congress politics know that the Gandhis always come to the forefront to righteously extract credit for an impressive performance. However, the rules seem to have changed, so far as Punjab goes. Here, if the party wins, the credit would be totally that of Captain Amarinder Singh, who led from the front despite many hurdles put in his trail by the leadership. A defeat would be interpreted as the failure of the Gandhis to provide an inspiring leadership to the cadres, as well as being unable to redeem their profile in the eyes of the common people.
The mood throughout the country is similar when it comes to the spurning of Sonia Gandhi and her son and daughter—Rahul and Priyanka. People in many parts want the Congress to make a comeback, but somehow are not desirous of the Gandhis’ role in its revival. The public perception continues to be against them and though no court of law so far has indicted them for any kind of wrongdoing, the voters have not forgiven them for the multiple scams during the tenure of UPA 2.
Poll strategists like Prashant Kishor have made a tidy sum for their consultations to the party, but have failed to establish a grassroots connect with the common people so as to reinvent the image of any of the Gandhis. It is evident that Kishor does not understand the nuances of the Congress functioning, like many others and believes that drawing board politics is a substitute for realpolitik. His litmus test would have been Uttar Pradesh, but he has managed to make the Congress play second fiddle there, thus ensuring that even seasoned leaders do not share the spotlight. People in the state are wanting to know the whereabouts of the UPCC president Raj Babbar, who seems to be missing in action, at least in the media.
Sheila Dikshit was declared the Chief Ministerial nominee and it was left for her to explain that after the alliance, she was no longer a player, but just at the most “an extra or a guest artiste”. Should the Congress not have held a press conference to announce her withdrawal from the campaign in view of the alliance, which seems to be helping the Samajwadi Party more than itself?
The importance of the Punjab elections lies in the fact that Amarinder Singh is perhaps the last of the regional stalwarts who has the capacity of pulling it off on his own steam. What Virbhadra Singh achieved in Himachal Pradesh in 2012, Amarinder could have replicated the same in Punjab. He is considered to be the premier person to lead the state, even though the Aam Aadmi Party has made deep inroads in the rural areas and has dominated the political discourse largely in the Malwa region. AAP insiders are confident that they would form the next government and this could certainly mean that Arvind Kejriwal would have the option of relinquishing Delhi to move to the border state.
However, the glimmer of hope for the Congress is solely because Amarinder Singh’s stature has ensured that their battle was still on and the war cry given by the former soldier, an authority on the country’s military history, touched many chords. Sensing that Amarinder was confident of winning the state, the Congress high command, guided by wily and defeatist advisers, hampered his effort by dilly dallying on the tickets for nearly 45 days, a period very critical to the campaign. Many of the tickets were distributed to nominees whose chances of victory were as slim as those of the grand old party to make a comeback at the national level.
Amarinder turned the heat on his adversaries and did whatever was possible in the short time available to him despite the machinations of his opponents within the Congress fold. A conclusion that could be drawn was that his own high command was wanting him not to win, lest he assumes a larger than life profile and consequently becomes a threat to their supremacy. In Congress, rivals always play the second round before the first one plays out. Like Kamal Nath, Amarinder is regarded as a leader who commands immense respect amongst the cadres and possesses sufficiently wide acceptability.
Finally, if the outcome favours the Congress, it would usher in hope of revival for the workers. A defeat would mean the end of the road for the Gandhis, at least for the time being. Between us.