The present situation in Kashmir has presented a golden opportunity to the Centre to solve the Kashmir issue for once and all. When a situation is grave, only brave decisions work. In this case the brave decision is to abolish Kashmir’s special status and incorporate it in the Indian union, just like any other state.
Pakistan is working on multi-pronged strategies regarding Kashmir: It is playing the religious card and wooing ordinary Kashmiri Muslims into pro-Pakistan factions, apart from sending terrorists into India in order to perpetrate violence. Naturally, the state machinery has to respond with counter violence. Pakistan’s strategy is to glorify anybody killed in state violence, generate sympathy and use this opportunity to strengthen pro Pakistan elements by circulating stories of human rights violence and making the people disgruntled. Once people are disgruntled, exert pressure on India for plebiscite and as India refuses to oblige, tell the world community that India is forcefully controlling Jammu and Kashmir, while the people of J&K want freedom from India.
To respond to this, we must make up our mind to confront Jammu and Kashmir’s existing reality.
At present, the people of Kashmir can be divided into three categories. The first category has those who openly oppose India and plead for Kashmir’s merger with Pakistan, or freedom from India. The second category comprises those who are not vocal about their preference, but are not happy with the current situation. The third category contains people who are pro India. If J&K Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti has to be believed, only 5% Kashmiris are pro Pakistani. There may be differences in the estimation, but there is no denying that a section of the population in J&K who support this, and that there is a sizeable section which prefers to stay silent on the issue. In this regard, the experience the world over shows that when a country is faced with a hostile local population, the only way of controlling the situation is by changing the demographic composition of that region drastically. So if the government wants peace in J&K, it urgently needs to change the demographic composition of the valley. The BJP should remember its historic opposition to Article 370, which gives J&K special status. If we cannot decimate this provision, how can we expect other countries including Pakistan to consider J&K as an integral part of India?
Scrapping Article 370 should be announced with other measures such as withdrawal of Armed Forces Special Powers Act within 60 days.
So far as opposition from within J&K is concerned, even with Article 370 in place Kashmir is not happy. So, what is the justification of continuing with it? Even National Conference and PDP talk of some kind of “political solution” of the issue. But if Government of India accedes to the demand of further autonomy, it will be akin to pushing Kashmir towards Pakistan and compromising with India’s sovereignty. The separatists want either “Nizam-e-Mustafa” or Kashmir’s merger with Pakistan. India will not fulfil either of their demands. Therefore, the only sensible option is to do away with all the provisions of Article 370 that are stopping the government from changing the demographic composition of Kashmir and fully incorporating J&K in Union of India. Once demography starts changing, the ground reality of the place will automatically start changing.
If the government decides to take advantage of the current mood of the nation and declares Article 370 null and void through a “Presidential Order”, even in Kashmir the focus of the protests will change to the reinstatement of Article 370, from secession. By taking this step, without firing a single shot, India can hit Pakistan hard. In Kashmir too, after initial protests they will be forced to accept the situation as final.
There is a general complaint in Kashmir that they are not being treated at par with the people of the other states, in case of protests staged against government policies. They give examples of the protests in states such as Haryana, Karnataka, Delhi, etc. The irony is that they are craving for equal status and treatment, but we are giving them special status, which they are resenting. Except for some political people and jihadi elements, the ordinary Kashmiri is not happy with special status. They want freedom from the heavily deployed security forces and day-to-day hardships. Therefore, scrapping Article 370 should be announced with other measures such as withdrawal of Armed Forces Special Powers Act within 60 days. For the sake of ordinary Kashmiris, the government should go ahead with scrapping Article 370, even if that temporarily invites political uproar and disturbance in the valley.
Durga Nand Jha is the Executive Chairman of Centre for Policy Analysis, Patna.