New Delhi: The five state Assembly elections are quite crucial for both the BJP and Congress. The prestige of the BJP and Congress is at stake in West Bengal and Kerala, respectively. However, both the national parties are not in direct fight with each other either of these two states.
But the results will definitely have their bearing on the politics of both the political outfits. BJP has not spared any effort to romp home in Bengal in the last five years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP national president J.P. Nadda are leading from the front, giving West Bengal Chief Mamata Banerjee sleepless nights.
Observers say that if despite all these efforts, the BJP does not perform well in Bengal, it will have to revisit its strategy for future elections. If the BJP succeeds in Bengal, then it will be unstoppable till 2024.
Meanwhile, the only option for the Congress to be able to be in the fight is that it should win Kerala. A defeat in Kerala polls will open the floodgates of trouble for Rahul Gandhi, who happens to be an MP from there.
Congress is being seen weak in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Assam where elections are to be held in April. Congress may get a couple of seats due to its alliance with DMK in Tamil Nadu. The grand old party is looking feeble in Assam and Puducherry. It is out of the scene in Bengal as well. It will be happy if the TMC performs well in Bengal on 2 May. But Mamata’s march to power again is difficult given the indications as of now. BJP’s strategic move has added to the woes of TMC. After getting charge of Bengal, Kailash Vijayvargiya got a good hold of politics of the state and managed to dent the TMC. He got full backing of the BJP central leadership as well. Sources said that BJP had started preparing a strong strategy at the time of last Assembly elections, that fetched the party good results in Lok Sabha polls. The Bihar outcome gave BJP more power and energy. BJP’s strategy is to establish dominance in all the five states. Of these five states, BJP is in power only in Assam. Now, the BJP is keen to retain Assam and form governments in Puducherry and Bengal.
The saffron party will try and enhance its votes and support base in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. PM Narendra Modi will be the star campaigner of the party in all the five states.
These polls are also important from the point of view of changing politics resulting from farmers’ protests. If BJP wins Bengal, Puducherry and Assam, it will emerge stronger in UP and other northern states. Then, the BJP’s position during the electoral test in UP, Uttarakhand and Punjab will be much better.
Elections in these states will take place early next year. The SP may be considered to be posing some challenge to BJP in Uttar Pradesh, but Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, at the same time, has no major and significant challenger before him.