The development paves the way for byelections and a new dawn in Tamil politics even as new players like Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan wait in the wings.
The Edappadi Palaniswami government in Tamil Nadu has got a new lease of life, with the Madras High Court upholding the disqualification of 18 rebel AIADMK legislators owing allegiance to T.T.V. Dhinakaran faction by Speaker P. Dhanapal last year. Earlier in June, a two-judge bench of the High Court comprising the then Chief Justice Indira Banerjee and Justice M. Sundar had pronounced a split verdict, following which the Supreme Court had appointed Justice Sathyanarayanan to hear the matter. While Justice Banerjee upheld the Speaker’s order, Justice Sundar set it aside on multiple grounds such as perversity, mala fide and non-compliance of principles of justice. Justice Satyanarayanan said that “there is no error apparent on the face of the record, and the reasons assigned by the…Speaker did not suffer on the grounds of breach of Constitutional mandate, mala fides (and) non-compliance of the rules of natural justice…” The judge further said that “no perversity is attached to the reasons assigned by the…Speaker to disqualify the petitioners”. The court has also vacated a stay on holding byelections in the constituencies of the disqualified MLAs, as well as a temporary ban on trust vote in the Assembly. So the verdict will pave way for elections to 20 Assembly constituencies in the state—18 of the disqualified and two fell vacant following the death of sitting MLAs including that of M. Karunanidhi—in the next six months. The revolt by 19 MLAs had brought the Palaniswami government to a minority last year before the disqualification order passed by Speaker Dhanapal on 18 Septembaer 2017. One MLA later apologised and returned to Palaniswami’s fold.
On the face of it, the disqualification may look like a setback to Dhinakaran’s political ambitions and his nascent outfit Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam. But he was unfazed. “We expected a favourable verdict, but it is not a setback. I will consult the 18 MLAs on whether to file an appeal in the Supreme Court. Personally, my feeling is we should go for bypolls,” Dhinakaran told newspersons immediately after the verdict. He has every reason to go to the polls, coming as it is from his own thumping victory from RK Nagar last December. Chief Minister Palaniswami too expressed readiness to go to the people. “As far as AIADMK is concerned, we will contest all and ensure victory for Amma,” Palaniswami said. The other major player, Dradvida Munnetra Kazhagam chief, M.K. Stalin said his party had nothing to worry about the court order. “The DMK stand has always been to safeguard democracy,” he said while hoping the Election Commission would declare the dates soon. For all the three byelections are crucial. Dhinakaran has to establish his party, though his main aim is to capture AIADMK, at least by the time his aunt, Jayalalithaa’s famous, now caged, companion, V.K Sasikala comes out of jail. Among the three, Dhinakaran holds the heaviest purse string, the much-needed ammunition in the time of elections in present-day Tamil Nadu. For Palaniswami and his AIADMK, the prospects are not all bright. Ever since the death of Jayalalithaa, AIADMK has been rudderless, no wonder Palaniswami still has to fall back on her image to remind the people of his very own identity, let alone his party’s. Such was his performance in the last two years that nothing has moved in Tamil Nadu. His government is considered just a puppet in the hands of the BJP and Prime Minister Narendara Modi. For Stalin the byelections coming after his towering father’s death may turn out to be just a step away from returning DMK to power. If DMK can win all the 20 seats then the arithmetic will be in Stalin’s favour.
Then it is time for the bit players to take a bow. BJP is waiting in the wings for superstar Rajinikanth to start his much-awaited political party. BJP chief Amit Shah’s plan is to bring Rajini and AIADMK together. But Rajini seems to be undecided forever, since he must be wondering what to gain from his association with BJP, which has polled much less than even NOTA in the RK Nagar byelection. Despite his conquests on the Tamil celluloid his dilemma is understandable in a land where Dravida sentiments run deep. The other “hero”, Kamal Haasan, has a party, Makkal Needhi Maiam, but seems utterly confused as to where he belongs to. He is making a lot of noise and is visible in many parts of the state. From the fan following it is difficult to assess how much inroads he has made on the political front. Moreover, Haasan is yet to come out with a firm stand on many issues, especially his affiliations with other political players, other than his dislike for the BJP. He seems to be interested in allying with the Congress, which is with the DMK. In fact, many feel that Haasan will end up being a part player in Stalin’s scheme of things. Those who were with the People’s Welfare Front in the 2016 Assembly elections, such as CPM, CPI and VKC are supporting DMK now. If Vaiko’s MDMK and film star Vijayakanth’s DMDK also decide to back Stalin, then DMK will be back in power in Tamil Nadu in six months’ time, unless the Centre and BJP have other intentions in the light of the 2019 general elections.