Hyderabad: A majority of exit polls in Telangana predicted a clear victory to the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and lagging behind of the Congress-led four party Peoples’ Front (Mahakutami). However, the prospects of a hung Assembly as hinted by some exit polls have compelled the TRS leaders to search for new allies, including a possible post-poll arrangement with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Of the 119 total seats, the magic figure to come to power is 60, and the TRS is confident of crossing that figure easily based on the forecast by several surveys after the conclusion of the elections at 5 pm on Friday. In 2014, TRS won 64 seats and added 26 MLAs from other parties to take its strength to 90. The counting of votes will take place on 11 December.
However, this time Chief Minister and TRS president K. Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) hinted at a wave in favour of his party after casting his vote at his native Chintamadaka village in Siddipet district, but his son and IT Minister K.T. Rama Rao appeared even more confident and predicted a 100-plus mark for his party and said that certainly they would form the next government.
Compared to the ruling party camp, the Opposition Congress and its allies, TDP, CPI and Telangana Jana Samithi (TJS) looked somewhat sober and dull as the exit polls suggested a near defeat for them, but Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee president N. Uttam Kumar Reddy claimed that the front would get 80 seats and come to power.
Not so encouraging polling percentages in both rural and urban areas came as surprise to both the ruling and Opposition camps. If the 2014 polling stood at around 69%, this time, it crossed a little over 71%, despite the best efforts by the Election Commission and the local authorities. The polling percentage in Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) limits stands at a poor 51%.
As the GHMC accounts for as many as 24 Assembly seats, the low voter turnout is a concern for all parties, especially the Congress-led front which hoped to benefit out of the urban public’s apathy to the ruling party. The below 40% voter turnout in the Old City of Hyderabad where All India Majlis Ittehadul Muslimneen (AIMIM) holds its sway is a sign of this apathy.
While the exit polls conducted by some national TV news channels projected a clear win for the TRS, some others like NewsX presented a different picture of 57 to TRS and 46 to the Congress-led front. Most of the surveys gave around seven seats to BJP, another seven to AIMIM, besides fewer than nine seats to others including the rebels of different parties.
A survey held by former Congress MP Lagadapati Rajagopal, who is known for his poll surveys of the last few elections in the combined Andhra Pradesh, had given his own assessment that the Congress front might get 65 seats and TRS 35, with an error element of around 10 seats (plus or minus), thus hinting at the possibility of a hung Assembly.
All these surveys and scenarios have prompted the major players, TRS and Congress-TDP to scout for new allies, to cobble together a magic figure, in case a hung Assembly becomes a reality. CM KCR is actively considering a possible tie-up with BJP in case he falls short of the majority, sources close to him told this newspaper on Saturday.
“We are 100 per cent sure of getting enough seats on our own to form a government and there won’t be any need to take any help from others, but in case some unforeseen situations develop, we will bank on ally AIMIM, and even search for new allies,” said a senior TRS MLC, who is known for his proximity to KCR. However, the MLC refused to specify who the new allies were.
Going by the internal discussions in other parties, the new ally appears to be the BJP, which hopes to cross its last time’s figure of five seats. The BJP has improved its performance across Telangana and is expected to win a couple of more seats this time. As the AIMIM has taken a policy decision not to join the TRS-led government, but only support it from outside, KCR might need a stable partner, if he needs some seats.
BJP sources confirmed to this newspaper on Saturday that their party was not averse to joining a KCR-led government in case there was a hung Assembly, to keep the Congress at bay. “We will consider any offer from KCR, if he needs us and we will also explore the possibility of joining him for the sake of people of Telangana,” said a BJP MLC, who preferred not to be quoted.
TRS leaders are also in touch with some possible rebels who are sure to win. They include Shiva Kumar Reddy from Narayanapet, Anil Jadhav from Boath, G. Vinod from Bellampally, and Jalandhar Reddy from Makthal. These rebels have tried for TRS and Congress tickets but joined the fray as Independents at the last minute.
These five Independents are open to any camp, if their personal demands are met, sources close to them said. The Congress, too, is in touch with them, apart from counting on another rebel, Malreddy Ranga Reddy, who is contesting on a BSP ticket. Ranga Reddy, is a Congress ticket aspirant turned rebel as his Ibrahimpatnam seat went to TDP.
However, Congress officially backed Ranga Reddy’s candidature a day before the polling, on Thursday night. Though the Congress and TDP leaders, too, are in search of new allies, their chances of emerging as the single largest front appear remote in view of the poor show of its alliance partners, TJS and CPI, who may draw zero or manage a seat or two.