There will be relief that increasing efforts at supremacy by a single power over the Indo-Pacific and the Eurasian landmass will now confront an insuperable challenge fashioned by the four Quad leaders in Washington.
New Delhi: The Trump-Biden repeat of President Bill Clinton’s 1996 handover of Afghanistan to the Taliban was caused by the withdrawal of US logistical support to the Afghan National Army from March 2021 onwards on instructions from the White House. This was on the basis of misleading inputs received by Biden’s inner ring of advisors from those in his entourage who are loyal to Sino-Wahabi interests. These are active in the US administration as well as in the Democratic Party. A few such individuals have been also active in the inner circle of those around Vice-President Kamala Harris, who has, despite such influences, demonstrated a commitment to the fundamental values of the US as championed by Abraham Lincoln during the Civil War period. Given that it was her mother, a sensitive daughter of India, who brought up VP Kamala Harris and her sister Maya, it was unfortunate that so many self-proclaimed votaries of Indian tradition and culture were less than complimentary about Harris during the 2020 Presidential campaign. Such ire was increased by some of the then Senator’s undiplomatic utterances about people and politics in India. These were the consequence of relying in some instances on India hating Sino-Wahabi elements within her circle of advisors. These had been working overtime seeking to poison relations between Kamala Harris and the leadership in India, but once sworn in as Vice-President, Kamala Harris appears to have distanced herself from such elements. This has come after experiencing the negative reactions of the overwhelming majority of Indian-Americans, who are immune to the lures of the Sino-Wahabi lobby The Sino-Wahabi lobby seeks to influence as many US policymakers as they are able, so that they regard the Union Government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi as an unsuitable partner for the US. A similar effort is ongoing in India, where the Sino-Pakistan and Sino-Russian lobbies have been working assiduously to sow mistrust of US intentions and sincerity of purpose in the minds of policymakers. Blowback from the March-August 2021 Biden pullout from Afghanistan of US kinetic capabilities appears to have made President Biden and Vice-President Harris understand the political risks that the Administration and the Democratic Party are running when going by the recommendations of the Sino-Wahabi lobby. After the Afghan disaster, a wary Biden announced the AUKUS nuclear technology alliance and the holding of the first physical meeting of the four Heads of Government of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, both during this month
DELIVERABLES PLUS OPTICS
Any meeting at summit level is important not only for deliverables but for optics, and in this, the visit just concluded of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the United States has been even more consequential than his first visit in 2014, when he bonded speedily with then US President Barack Obama. Both Biden and Harris were cordial and open to the Prime Minister, who has with this visit scored a “hat-trick” by establishing close ties with three US Presidents: Obama, Trump and Biden. All three have vastly different personalities, but Modi was able to bond with each in turn. He was assisted by the mainstreaming within the US of the realisation of the China threat. Given that India has substantial capabilities to deter and where needed confront China, most of the policymaking community within the Washington Beltway has understood the importance of a partnership with the world’s most populous democracy. Support for this transcends political divides, which is why the policy towards India remained stable even during the stormy tenure of President Trump. A close relationship with India was among the few policies of the Obama administration that Trump carried forward rather than sought to reverse. It helped that the 2014 elections gave a clear mandate to the BJP led by Narendra Modi. Had UPA Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had his way more often than was the case, the record of his government on deepening the relationship with the US would have been much better. The Congress Party leadership often acted as a brake on the efforts of Manmohan Singh to strengthen the relationship with the US. According to a senior (and serving) US diplomat, the years since Modi took over have witnessed more progress on this relationship than during the entire preceding period. Prime Minister Modi went ahead with signing all three Foundational Agreements with the US (LEMOA, COMCASA and BECA), and has substantially increased the share of the US in defence purchases. The next step will be to make India the lead overseas manufacturer of key US air and land defence systems.
BEYOND THE ANGLO-SAXON ALLIANCE
As yet the Biden administration has not green lighted the transfer of US nuclear submarine technology to India in the manner that it has done to Australia via AUKUS. This has given an opportunity for detractors of the US to talk of an “Anglo-Saxon alliance” getting formed on ethnic lines. An offer of inclusion of India and Japan into new US-India and US-Japan agreements to jointly develop nuclear submarines would render such criticisms invalid. Given that the roots of Joe Biden are in Ireland and those of Kamala Harris in India, sneers about a new pairing of “Anglo-Saxon” powers ignore the multi-racial composition of US society. Even within the majority Euro-ethnic segment, the proportion of those with roots in England was lower than those from Italy or Germany. And ever since the 20th century, factors such as the country where ancestors came from has played almost no role in decisions such as marriage within US society. Over the past decades, conservative resistance even to inter-racial marriages (such as that between Vice-President Harris and her spouse, the strongly supportive Douglas Emhoff) have become accepted in such a manner that even Hollywood movies now routinely feature inter-racial marriage partners. In this respect, the US is very like India, where too societal prejudices are disappearing in all regions of the country. The contrast with the PRC (especially under Xi Jinping) is striking. The effort there is to create a homogenous society. The drive for conformity includes even Tibetans, Mongolians and Uzbeks, the young of whom are being schooled in the “common (i.e. Han) heritage” of the PRC.
DEMOCRATS AT A DISADVANTAGE
The feisty manner in which Trump challenged Xi was very popular in the US. In a country where even “Made in USA” labels come from China, many citizens are now seeking to avoid purchasing items made in the PRC. Since the 2017 Trade War between the US and China, this number has grown substantially. Among the reasons why President Biden has been sagging in opinion polls has been the perception that he is much weaker on confronting the threat from China than his predecessor was. The enquiry ordered by the White House on the origins of Covid1-19 came up with the same “either this or that” conclusion that had been pushed by those in the US establishment who had ties to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The reluctance of the White House to call Beijing out on a pandemic that has had the impact of a world war on economies and lives has cost Biden the support of a substantial number of voters. It has been argued that the softer tone of Biden as compared with Trump is to avoid the PRC casting itself as victim rather than aggressor in its moves to secure more land and sea space at the expense of its neighbours. While the PRC trashes those who seek to link trade with security, this has been the norm followed in its own policy. An example is the way in which South Korea and Australia have been sought to be punished by Beijing through contraction of exports to China because of measures taken by both to enhance their security against unfriendly actions of the PRC. While AUKUS has been the subject of much critical comment by Beijing, its own assistance to Pakistan in the nuclear field continues without pause. The “international order”, as defined by General Secretary Xi is, whatever the CCP leadership decides will serve the interests of the PRC. Thus far, Xi has had remarkable success in flashpoints such as the South China Sea, beginning with President Obama sacrificing US credibility as a security partner by abandoning long-time ally the Philippines when the Scarborough Shoals were annexed by the PLA in 2012 to silence from the Obama White House. The way in which Presidents Trump and later Biden walked away from the US commitment to assist the Afghan National Army against the Taliban has increased the level of mistrust not of US capabilities but of resolve in confronting the linked challenges of an increasingly assertive PRC and a rise in the level of activity of Wahabi terror groups, especially in what is once more a safe haven for them, Afghanistan. Copying the GHQ Rawalpindi playbook, the Taliban execute those opposed to them and pass such killings off as the neutralisation of ISIS. Recently, there have been clashes in several towns in Afghanistan, and in many of them, the battle is between the different factions of the Taliban. The two factions that are obedient to the commands of GHQ Rawalpindi and the faction that has been taken under its wing by the PLA are seeking to force the three factions that remain unresponsive to control by the Sino-Pakistan alliance into submission. Several of those killed are members of the “Free Taliban” who have been felled by those loyal to Rawalpindi or Beijing rather than to their own people. Thus far, the Biden White House had been ignoring the cascade of reports about the reality of the “new” Taliban being in several respects even more toxic than the “old” (which remains amply represented in the Taliban leadership). Such hesitation has placed the Democratic Party at a disadvantage, given that the Sino-Wahabi alliance is Enemy Number One in the minds of a majority of US voters. Biden may retrieve lost ground through the unexpected firmness that he is demonstrating both at the Mexico border as well as in the matter of meeting the situation created by the expansionism of the PRC. The meeting of the Quad fits with this changed narrative.
QUAD COMPLEMENTARITIES
Moscow has joined hands with Beijing to condemn both the Indo-Pacific formulation as well as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. The earlier Asia-Pacific formulation excluded India, whereas the new concept (unifying the Pacific and Indian Oceans) places India at the centre. Given this, it is obvious why Narendra Modi has welcomed the Quad in the manner that has been evident in Washington over the past few days. Japan gave billions of dollars in investment to the PRC during the 1980s and later. India cannot be faulted for seeking the same advantage as China secured during that period. Australia has the greatest known reserves of rare earths in the region (such as lithium), and it is natural that India and Australia would work together to ensure that these be utilised rather than remain unused. In like manner, China has been taking advantage of the plentiful stocks of coal and iron ore in Australia, the very action for which it is now faulting the Quad. As for the US, more than a third of those working in hi-tech sectors in the US have their roots in India, and hence the formalisation of a tech partnership between the US and India has long been overdue. Interestingly, to this day, much of China’s own successes in fields relating to technology are sourced from the US, Japan and Taiwan. All three are facing the impact of the one-sided and aggressive nature of PRC interaction with them, especially in the case of Taiwan, whose air and sea space is often violated by the other side. Abundant talent in India makes our country the ideal location for projects such as Taiwanese technoparks or US-India knowledge cities focusing on Artificial Intelligence, carbon entrapment and such other fields essential to sustainability. In particular, India needs to remain the hub of vaccine and therapeutic production if the costs of supplying the volumes needed in a manner that does not bankrupt economies. The provision of caregivers (as distinct from nurses) is a $46 billion industry just in Japan. Tens of thousands in India would find lucrative careers in Japan, were efforts made to train them in the rudiments of the Japanese language and culture, besides caregiving, preferably in an integrated course lasting a year. The complementarities between the Quad members are substantial, and that Beijing and Moscow expect Prime Minister Modi to ignore this would be to misunderstand the resolve to ensure a much safer India by 2024 and a wholly prospering India by 2029. The meetings that the Prime Minister had in Washington would only have strengthened that resolve, and created even among those still in thrall to outdated concepts the value of embracing the opportunities of the present rather than clinging to policies that have years ago become irrelevant to the needs of the country and its burgeoning youth population.
RELIEF ACROSS ASIA
Whether it be on the crafting of a security architecture designed to deter attacks, or matters such as the environment and the economy, the 24 September 2021 Quadrilateral Summit has the potential to be as defining a moment for its participants as the Dumbarton Oaks and Bretton Woods conferences were in 1944. During his brief stay in Washington, Prime Minister Narendra Modi played a key role in ensuring such a success. He worked together with President Biden, Prime Minister Suga and Prime Minister Morrison. Within Central Asia, ASEAN and the GCC, there will be relief that increasing efforts at supremacy by a single power over the Indo-Pacific and the Eurasian landmass will now confront an insuperable challenge that has been fashioned by the four Quad leaders in Washington during their meetings on 23 and 24 September.