‘Pre-monsoon activities expected in second half of April’

New Delhi: Delhi has been witnessing skyrocketing temperatures this year and a severe heatwave is expected until 12 April. Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, told The Sunday Guardian that pre-monsoon activity is probable in the northwest and central parts of India in the second half of April, which may cause temperatures to dip. Excerpts:
Q: Most parts of India are witnessing unusual high temperatures. Could you explain the reasons behind it?
A: This year, we have not seen any weather activities, particularly, pre-monsoon activities; the pre-monsoon seasons are March April May; although the intensity increases in April and May when the temperature start rising 40-degree Celcius or mid-40-degree Celcius, so duststorm, thundershower afternoon rain (pre-monsoon activities) control the temperature. But this year, we have not seen any weather activities in March as the intensity and frequency of western disturbances are very less. There is no snowfall, no rainfall over hills, so whenever there is snowfall or rainfall, winds are flowing from that direction up to Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Central India, which tend to lead to drop in temperature. This year, we have not seen any rainfall and continuous dry and hot winds from westerly directions like Baluchistan, central Pakistan, Thar desert are blowing over from northwest and central India, leading to an increase in temperature.
Q: What could be the possible reason behind the slow vanishing of the spring season in India?
A: Yes, the transition between winter and summer is very fast. As the weather activities are diminishing and western disturbances are less and frequency and intensity of western disturbances are also decreasing and the greenery is also diminishing due to urbanisation, whenever there is an increase in greenhouse gases, energy released by the earth increases, leading to warming of the atmosphere. The transition from winter to summer is fast so the spring season is shrinking.
Q: Are you officially admitting that summer has arrived?
A: Summers have arrived in advance because usually in April and May, the temperature starts to increase, reaching the mid-40-degree Celcius; but this year we have seen that temperature reaching 40 degrees in March. Many parts of Delhi-NCR have witnessed 40-41 degrees celsius, and severe heatwave conditions were observed over Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Q: Do you see any possibility that the temperature may go down and again rise in May?
A: Yes, till mid-April, we don’t expect any significant weather activities in terms of duststorms thundershowers, hailstorms and so forth. So, the temperature may remain on the higher side until mid-April. In the second half of April, there are chances of premonsoon activities in the northwest and central India which may lead to drop in temperature, but as the pre-monsoon activities commence temperature tends to drop for a short duration then again will start to increase.
Q: Do you expect an early monsoon?
A: No, the usual date of monsoon is 1 June; as of now, the arrival of the monsoon will be on time and the progress of the monsoon will depend on various factors.
Q: Even after several warnings from the UN, why the emission of greenhouse gases is unchecked globally?
A: All countries should contain greenhouse gases. One can switch to green energy, fossil fuels should be reduced but it will take time. India is also lagging, now India is trying to switch to renewable energy, such as solar energy. By 2030, or the next five years, they should contain the greenhouse gases and then reverse it by 25-30% in the next ten years; then only global warming will be controlled.
Q: It has been concluded in the IPCC report that the “warming may exceed 1.5 degrees celsius during the 21st century.” Do you agree?
A: Yes, at least; it can be concluded that the warming may exceed by 1.5 degrees, but it can be more like 2-2.5 degrees Celcius if it is not contained.
Q: How do you look at the present climate change and do you see any unusual phenomena due to rampant climate change?
A: Now that global warming and climate change already is taking place, the impact is visible like intense heatwave conditions, and premature temperature rise in many parts of the country like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and parts of Delhi-NCR, southwest Uttar Pradesh and parts of Haryana. Usually, the temperature used to go up by late April and May, we have seen those types of temperatures in mid-March and heatwave conditions and forest fires are also increasing. The intensity and frequency of western disturbance, this year, particularly, are very less in the month of March and February.