According to the agencies conducting pre-poll surveys, modification in SC/ST Act has angered the upper caste voters.
Multiple agencies, which have conducted electoral surveys in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh, have drawn a grim picture for the incumbent Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP government in the upcoming Assembly elections in the state. According to their prediction, the anti-incumbency factor coupled with resentment in certain sections against the “modified” SC/ST Act may damage BJP’s prospects in the state polls scheduled to be held in less than two months.
Pollsters and psephologists, including three members of a well-known agency which has strategised poll campaigns for both BJP and Congress in the past, told this newspaper on the condition of anonymity that the modification in the said Act, carried out by the Centre recently in order to bypass a Supreme Court order, has generated “a lot of anger” against the BJP.
One of them said, “The picture has noticeably changed in the last one month ever since the SC/ST order of the Central government came out. Earlier, both the BJP and the Congress were in the same position as far as popularity is concerned. If the state Congress leaders are able to put up a collective fight and convince the general caste voters that it is with them, the BJP may find it hard to come back to power.”
The above mentioned agency has not been roped in by any national party for the Assembly polls this time but it has been operating in Madhya Pradesh for the last three months to prepare itself for the 2019 general elections.
Apart from this agency, a team member of another poll management company based in central India which is collecting “perception-based” data by talking to social influencers and common voters in Gwalior region, claimed that the upper castes like Rajputs and Thakurs, apart from the Brahmins, are unlikely to vote for the BJP.
“In 2013, voters of these castes had supported the BJP. If the Congress is able to enter into an alliance with the BSP in this region, the BJP will have to fight very hard to repeat its 2013 performance. There is also a lot of anger against many of the sitting MLAs and hence the personal goodwill of Shivraj Singh Chouhan may not work this time,” he added.
A team, led by some young BJP supporters, is also working in the state for the last three months and collecting data and feedback from the voters by employing field agents who have been assigned districts.
Last week, for the first time in 25 years, the Congress appointed a Brahmin, Madan Mohan Jha, as the party’s state president in Bihar, a development which is being talked about among party workers in Madhya Pradesh and being used to woo upper caste voters.