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Stalin survives the Modi wave, for now

NewsStalin survives the Modi wave, for now

AIADMK can win 2021 state polls only by solving river-sharing and NEET issues.

 

New Delhi: Cyclones and tsunamis are nothing new to Tamil Nadu. The state has withstood the vagaries of weather each time tidal formations took shape in the Bay of Bengal, though many had left behind a trail of death and devastation. Last month, the southern state successfully overcame a tsunami of a different kind that swept most parts of the north, west and east of the country. By the time the political tsunami named after Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached coastal Tamil Nadu it had lost its wind power, leaving the state practically unaffected.

A political formation by the grand old Dravidian party, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, led by a new general, was able to withstand the onslaught of the Modi wave. By doing so, M.K. Stalin, son of late Dravidian patriarch M. Karunanidhi, has signalled his arrival on the political horizon of the state and the nation as well. Before the general elections, when Stalin formed the Secular Progressive Alliance along with Congress, CPM, CPI and five other regional parties, many even in the DMK thought whether Stalin was too magnanimous in offering 20 seats to the allies. How could anyone justify nine seats to Congress, which got less than 5% of votes in 2014 or, for that matter, two seats each to CPM and CPI, which together secured not even 1% of votes last time? But Stalin proved right in deciding not to split the Opposition vote, while taking on the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, of which the ruling AIADMK was a party. Stalin swept the state winning 37 of the 38 constituencies that went to polls; the one in Vellore was cancelled because of cash for votes syndrome, much too obvious this time even for Tamil standards. The alliance got a vote share of 52%, over a lakh majority in 34 seats, justifying Stalin’s gamble. The alliance didn’t do badly in the Assembly byelections too, winning 13 out of the 22; but not enough to unseat the ruling AIADMK government. Overall, Stalin has done well for himself and the Dravidian movement in the state.

But it will be unfair to overlook the shrewdness shown by AIADMK Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami. He had his priorities right, to cling on to power at St George Fort at all cost. The party, with the support of key allies such as PMK, managed to win nine seats, just enough to keep control of the state. This is no mean achievement considering the threat his party faced from dissident T.T.V. Dinakaran, who had floated the rival political outfit Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), not to speak of Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam. As expected, both, though not done well, had cut into AIADMK vote share in select areas. Since Stalin is not keen to unseat the government through horse-trading, Palaniswami and company will have a smooth sail till the Assembly elections in 2021. And by hanging onto the coat tails of the Modi government at the Centre, he may be able to bring some benefits for the state. This includes the much-promised river water sharing and the contentious NEET issue. If these two can be clinched in favour of the state, it will be considered a major victory for the state government and will help the BJP too in the state. As it is, Palaniswami and his deputy Panneerselvam have done enough damage to Amma’s party by aligning with BJP in the state. Many remember that in 2014 the late Jayalalithaa stormed the state with the question: “Antha Modio, Entha Ammao (that Modi or this Amma)”. It is that party which has now ended up at the stables of the BJP. Party followers are unlikely to forgive the leadership for that for some time to come. The only way to overcome is to eke out as many benefits for the state in the next two years. It may not be an easy task in the face of hostilities between the DMK in the state and the BJP at the Centre.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has added to this hostility by not inviting Stalin to his swearing-in. This does not augur well for Centre-State relations; unless the BJP plans to rework on the very fundamentals of federalism in the country. After all, DMK has emerged as the third largest opposition party in the country, nothing compared to BJP’s 303, but its voice cannot be stifled. It is certain that the BJP in no way is going to take Tamil Nadu off its radar. The Dravidian state, along with neighbouring Kerala, will remain the crucial gateway for the party’s grand entry into the south, now that West Bengal is very much under its control. If the ruling party at the Centre intends to make inroads into the state, it cannot do so without recognising DMK as its rival here. Even superstar Rajinikanth on whom the BJP hopes to rely much in all future actions will deny this fact. Rajini was in attendance at the grand function in Delhi last week. Now that Modi has started his second innings, all eyes in the state will be on Rajini and his much-awaited political moves. The actor has done the basics in unifying his Rajini Manrams (Followers of Rajini) under one umbrella. But that significant political will is still lacking, perhaps due to inexperience. Considering the BJP’s penchant for fast political moves, Rajini may be forced to act soon, which will bring him face to face with Stalin. That will be interesting to watch.

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