Congress is likely to unseat the Bharatiya Janata Party from power in Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, says a survey conducted by polling agency Cfore. As per the Cfore survey, Congress is likely to get between 118-132 seats out of the total 230 seats in the state, which is going to the polls on 28 November. According to the survey, the ruling BJP may come second with 94-108 seats, while Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party is likely to get 5-12 seats. Independents and other contesting parties may end up getting 3-10 seats.
The Cfore survey further predicts that the Congress is expected to get a 43% vote share, while the BJP is likely to get 41%, BSP 6% and others might secure a 10% vote share.
The Congress is expected to secure significant vote shares from across all caste and religious segments in Madhya Pradesh. As per the survey, 81% of Muslims and 58% of Dalits of the state are likely to vote for the Congress. 48% of OBC voters are leaning towards the BJP, while 50% are favouring the Congress, the survey says.
However, the youths of MP still have faith in the BJP, as 44% of youngsters aged between 18 and 25 years are like to vote for the BJP; while 42% in the age group of 26 to 35 years are likely to vote for the BJP, the survey says.
The Cfore conducted the pre-poll survey in Madhya Pradesh between 28 October and 10 November this year. In the survey, 22,357 voters were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. The survey has a margin of error of 1 percentage point at 95% confidence level.
The survey says that the Congress is emerging as a popular preference amongst women voters, with 44% women respondents opting to vote for the Congress.
“As of now Congress is ahead of BJP by 2 percentage points in Madhya Pradesh. Congress is ahead in all regions except in Bhopal region where BJP is ahead,” the survey has observed.
In the Mahakaushal region, which includes Chhindwara, the bastion of senior Congress leader and Chief Minister probable Kamal Nath, the Congress is leading by 3 percentage points. Similarly, in the Gwalior region, where Jyotiraditya Scindia has a strong clout, the party is leading by 2% over the ruling BJP, according to the survey.
The only region where the incumbent BJP is doing better than the Congress is the Bhopal region and some other urban areas. Current Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is an MLA from Budhni constituency, which is adjacent to the state capital Bhopal.
The BJP is facing anti incumbency in Madhya Pradesh as the party has been in power for the last 15 years and trying hard to save its bastion.