Election for the Bangladesh Parliament will be held on 30 December and Bangladesh Prime Minster Sheikh Hasina has said that her party, the Awami League, will win, in the sham election. First, she put the President of the main Opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Khaleda Zia, along with a number of other BNP leaders, behind bars. The Bangladesh Election Commission rejected more than 300 candidates nominated by the Opposition parties. With the help of the Army and police, Awami League workers have been harassing and intimidating Opposition parties. Awami League will win a comfortable majority, leaving a few seats for opposition, mostly non-BNP opposition parties. Then, Hasina will hail the victory as signs of a vibrant democracy in Bangladesh.
Creation of Pakistan was based on the two-nation theory, i.e. Hindus and Muslims are two different nations and could not live together. In 1947, Britishers carved out the two parts of India with the Muslim majority, one was in the West and the other in the East. These were known as East and West Pakistan which were separated by about 1,000 miles of the Indian territory. Even though the leaders and Muslim population in East Pakistan (East Bengal) agreed to be a part of Pakistan, they were never treated equally.
In February 1971, the Awami League of East Pakistan won the majority of seats in Pakistan’s parliament elections; however, West Pakistan was adamantly opposed to let Awami League rule Pakistan. In East Pakistan, there was already a lot of animosity towards West Pakistan due to economic and political exploitation. In March 1971, protest against West Pakistan started in Bangladesh. On 23 March 1971, Awami League’s leader Shaikh Mujibar Rehman raised Bangladesh flag for the first time. On 27 March, Pakistan’s President General Yahya Khan moved the Pakistan army into Bangladesh, arrested Mujibar Rehman and other leaders and imposed Martial law. The army resorted to extreme brutality and started killing Bengali intellectuals and leaders. The army especially targeted Hindus. As a result, more than one million Bengalis, mostly Hindus, moved to India. Unfortunately, the American government not only kept quiet, it supported military’s actions. A book, written by Gary Bass, The Blood Telegram, provides details of the Pakistani military’s brutality and America’s support to Pakistan.
In December 1971, the Indian army, with the help of Bangladesh freedom fighters, attacked Bangladesh and on 16 December 1971, Pakistan’s army surrendered. A new constitution was installed in 1972 and the first Parliament election was held in 1973. The Awami League easily won the election. In 1975, Rehman imposed one party rule. On 15 August 1975, Rehman was assassinated. On 16 November 1975, the Army installed Chief Justice Alim Sadr as the President. In 1977, Army Chief Zia-ul Rahman staged a coup and became President. In 1979, Parliament elections were held and the Bangladesh National Party of General Rehman won the election. In 1981, General Rehman was assassinated and General Abadus Salter became the President. In 1982, another military coup took place and the Chief Justice Chaudhary was installed as the President by the army. In 1983, General Ershad became President. He and his party, Jatiya Party, remained in power until 1990 when General Ershad was forced to resign as a result of massive protests in Bangladesh.
In 1991, elections were held and BNP’s Begum Khalida Zia became Prime Minister. In the February 1996 elections, due to the manipulative activities by Zia, all Opposition parties boycotted the election and BNP won all 300 seats. The Supreme Court of Bangladesh held the elections as illegal. In June 1996, new elections were held and the Awami League won. Sheikh Hasina, the wife of Mujibar Rehman, became the Prime Minister. In 2001, BNP won the elections and Begum Zia again became the Prime Minister.
Earlier, Bangladesh’s Constitution required the government to resign at least two months prior to the elections so that a caretaker non-partisan government under the Chief Justice could be installed to assure fair elections. A few months before the elections to be held in 2006, Begum Zia appointed one of her party’s members as the Chief Justice. Sheikh Hasina and her party Awami League opposed the formation of the caretaker government under that Chief Justice. That time, I visited Bangladesh at the invitation of the Hindus. At that time, I tried to convince BNP to appoint a neutral and acceptable person as the Chief Justice. Upon my return to USA, I contacted the Prime Minister of India, as well as authorities of the U.S. government and United Nations (generally the United Nations’ Observers have been overseeing Bangladesh parliamentary elections), requiring them to pressurise the BNP to replace the Chief Justice.
Finally, mainly due to pressure from the USA and UN, the Chief Justice was replaced and a caretaker government was formed. However, the unrest and confusion continued and the Army declared emergency. In 2008, elections were held and the Awami League won more than a two-third majority and Hasina became the PM.
The next parliamentary elections were scheduled to be held on 24 January 2014. As Sheikh Hasina’s government had become very unpopular, in all probability, she would have badly lost the elections. Out of this fear, the Awami League’s two-third majority changed the Constitution and eliminated the provision of a caretaker government. The government also arrested a number of opposition leaders. BNP and its allies reacted vigorously against the decision of not forming a caretaker government. BNP boycotted the 2013 elections. Awami League won a huge majority with a few seats going to Jatiya Party. In order to have a facade of democracy, Hasina did an unusual thing. She recognised Jatiya Party as an Opposition party despite the fact that the Jatiya Party did not have the number of Parliament members required to be a recognised opposition. She also incorporated a couple of Jatiya Party MPs into her Cabinet. Thus, Jatiya Party is an opposition party as well as part of the government.
Now the more serious question! After the election on 30 December, the Jatiya Party will become more irrelevant. The head of the Jatiya Party, Roxana Ershad, is old and would not be able to lead the party for too long and slowly, the Party may almost disappear. Both Sheikh Hasina and Khalida Begum are also old and their sons are corrupt and may not be able to lead their parties. This situation would cause a great political vacuum which may be filled by the Army, China and radical Muslims. To some extent, India has influence over Bangladesh, but nowhere close to that of China. Without pushing for democracy in Bangladesh, the US government may try to maintain its current position in Bangladesh; however, this position may not long last. It is very important for India, US and Western countries to get more engaged with South Asian countries and assure the survival of democratic systems so that they continue to act independently and not fully dependent on and controlled by China.