One of the most controversial and divisive U.S. elections, full of fiery rhetoric, is now over. Despite the President’s low approval rating, the Democratic Party could not take much advantage of a mid-term election. Generally, the party in the White House loses in mid-term elections as happened even during Barack Obama’s presidency. It is correct that the Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and increased the state governorships by six (still 30 out of 50 states have Republican governors). The Republicans increased their numbers in the Senate which has more power than does the House.
Almost all political appointments, including the appointments of federal judges, require the Senate’s confirmation and the House has no rule. It is also worth noting that the Republicans won all the Senate seats where Trump campaigned. Strangely, Trump concentrated primarily on the issue of immigration and caravans from the Central American countries proceeding towards the United States to force their entry into the United States. He and the Republican Party could have done better in the elections, had they also focused on the booming economy and stock market.
In the 2018 elections, more young voters voted who generally vote for Democrats. There were many firsts in this election. Ninety-nine women got elected to the House, a new record. The last record was 84 women. Now, six states have women governors, another record since 2007. For the first time, two native American women and two Muslim women got elected to the House. Massachusetts elected the first black woman to the House. Tennessee, a conservative state, elected its first woman as U.S. Senator. A record number of women got elected to state assemblies. Also, a record number of Indians ran for the House but only four, who were incumbents, won.
Losing the House does weaken President Trump’s position, but as a businessman, he knows how to make deals. Last year, for immigration issues, he sidelined the Republicans and invited Minority Senate Leader Senator Schumann (the leader of Democratic Party in the Senate) and tried to make a deal with the Democratic Party on immigration issues. However, Senator Schumer, being a long-term politician and lawyer, did not understand. Instead of negotiating a deal soon after his meeting with Trump, Democrats started strategising for a far better deal. Trump did not wait long for the Democrats to come back and then he completely ignored the Democrats and sidelined them. Later, the Democrats realised their mistake. It reminded me of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to White House in June 2017. There was a photograph in the newspapers showing the Trump team on one side of the table and the Indian team on the other. The American side was composed of the President, a businessman, Secretary of State Tillerson, ex-head of Exxon Mobil Oil Company, national Security Advisor General McMaster, Secretary of Finance Mnuchin, Secretary of Defence Mattis and Secretary of Commerce Ross, all successful businessmen or technocrats. The Indian team consisted of Prime Minister Modi, a long-term politician, a brilliant man, but with not much international business experience, and three bureaucrats Doval, Jayashakar and Ambassador Novjot Singh, with no private world or business experience. This high level meeting disappointed Trump and did not go as well as it could or should have been.
Trump’s foreign policy and tactics are not going to change. If there is any change, Trump will get tougher on China and Iran. His relation with Europe and Canada will remain cold. On the world scene, although President Trump has rattled the leaders of European countries, Canada, China, Mexico, North Korea and Iran, he got whatever he wanted. His main objective was to renegotiate all the trade deals signed by previous Presidents. The European Union, Canada and Mexico have already renegotiated business deals to the benefit of U.S., China is in the process of doing so. Trump has tamed North Korea which no other leader was able to do. He will force Iran also to renegotiate the nuclear treaty. This situation provides an opportunity to India which can act as a mediator between U.S. and Iran. Iran also wants to negotiate with U.S., but is reluctant to do so on an one-to- one basis at this time. India can become a mediator and bring both the parties to negotiation table.
The American leaders’ complaint is that India does not think big. Their focus has been how well they are received in the White House and general issues like Devyani’s, expulsion from the US, HIB visa and Kashmir. In my article published in the June 2017 issue of The Sunday Guardian, I recommended that Modi not discuss the HIB visa and Kashmir during his meeting with Trump. Fortunately, he did not. India has a big advantage in U.S. Trump stated publicly that he likes India and Hindus. He appointed more American Hindus at high levels in his administration than any other president did. In fact, he has more Hindus than he does other minorities such as Jews, Blacks, Orientals and Hispanics. Indians are very prominent in U.S. business and have the highest average and median incomes in U.S. In his Diwali message issued on 7 November, he acknowledged these facts. Indians also contribute heavily to the candidates of both parties. A lot of Congressmen and Senators have Indian doctors as their personal physicians and some of them have Indian Gurus or are influenced by the Hindu philosophy. India should take advantage of all these factors and develop a strategy on how to negotiate with the U.S. to the “mutual benefit” which India can do and US is willing to do also. India should work with Indian business organisations not only in the U.S., but all over the world which China does. India is in a unique position and can work well with the United States, European countries, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and a number of other entities all over the world. It was good that Modi visited a large number of countries and should visit more. However, merely signing MoUs do not do the trick, there has to be follow up with thorough economical and political plans.
In his remaining two years, Trump’s main focus will be to get re-elected in 2020; so he may not travel much outside the US. That may be one of the reasons for not accepting the invitation to be the Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day function. He will also try to turn Democratic control of the House to his advantage. If the Democrats are not careful, he will blame Democrats’ control of the House for the failure of not getting anything done. Trump’s presidency to date has been interesting and will remain so. If he gets re-elected in 2020 and there are good chances he would be, he will act more humbly on the world and the United States. Let’s wait and see.