What BJP cannot lose sight of is that 48 Lok Sabha seats come from Maharashtra; MVA will be a challenge with Uddhav continuing to be at its helm.
New Delhi: The political crisis in Maharashtra may have triggered various speculations, but the BJP is unlikely to leave Uddhav Thackeray. Eknath Shinde may be powerful in terms of number of MLAs with him, but it will turn out to be a mistake for the BJP if it underestimates Uddhav Thackeray in Maharashtra.
Some observers say that the BJP may repeat the Bihar experiment in Maharashtra too, which means it may form a government with Uddhav Thackeray, even if the CM post goes to him in changed circumstances. But all this will depend on Uddhav Thackeray who is the central figure in the entire development so far. BJP strategists believe that Uddhav Thackeray may evoke public sympathy if he is left. The real Shiv Sainiks will be with him only. Shiv Sena means Thackeray like Congress means the Gandhi family. Under the leadership of Uddhav, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) will be a strong alliance which will have its bearing on the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP cannot challenge the MVA relying only on Eknath Shinde.
After UP, Maharashtra is the second largest state in terms of Lok Sabha seats, with 48 LS MPs coming from the state. The BJP had won 41 Lok Sabha seats from Maharashtra in 2019. If the MVA continues to be in place under Uddhav’s leadership, then it will bag more Lok Sabha seats in 2024 than what BJP got in 2019. In Bihar, there is a similar political situation. If JDU, RJD and Congress grand alliance had continued there the politics in Bihar would have been different. The BJP wouldn’t be in the ruling alliance then. It would have also affected the Lok Sabha strength as well. But the BJP did not take any risk and continued to maintain good rapport with Nitish Kumar and made him join its alliance. The BJP made Nitish the CM of Bihar even after getting more seats than JDU so that the Lok Sabha strength does not dwindle. Observers see the same situation in Maharashtra as well. BJP strategists know the importance of every single Lok Sabha seat, and in that case, Maharashtra sends 48 MPs to the Lower House. NCP supremo Sharad Pawar is also aware of the importance of Thackeray in view of future politics. Congress is fully aware that only Thackeray can pose a tough challenge to BJP. So, both the parties want Uddahv to be with them. What concerns them is BJP’s possible success in wooing Uddhav. So far, neither Shiv Sainiks are aggressive nor are the BJP leaders vocal. Devendra Phadnavis, who always keeps his eyes on the CM post, is also not speaking much.
Observers are of the view that the BJP’s plan is far-reaching. The high command knows that Lok Sabha equations could be upset if Uddhav Thackeray is not there with the BJP.
At the same time, Uddhav Thackeray may be looking more dependent on NCP chief Sharad Pawar, but BJP suits him more for his Hindutva politics and for the future of his son Aditya. If Uddhav Thackeray does not join hands with BJP and it forms government with Shinde, only then Shiv Sainiks will not remain silent. Shiv Sainiks have reportedly resorted to some violent activities. Aware of Thackeray’s clout, both the Congress and the NCP may try to generate sympathy for him not only in Maharashtra but also out of the state. Now what is to be seen is whether Maharashtra poses any challenge for BJP or if everything goes smooth.