India is naturally very concerned at developments in Kabul in particular and Afghanistan in general.
It is my hope that Taliban Two are a more reasonable and more tolerant lot then Taliban One. At the press conference held by the Taliban, the first of its kind, the contents and tone were reassuring. A large number of media persons asked questions. These were answered without raving and ranting. But the spokes-person made it clear that Sharia law would be enforced.
India is naturally very concerned at developments in Kabul in particular and Afghanistan in general. The Taliban are openly anti-India, virulently anti-Hindu, anti-Buddhist. Islamic fundamentalists blew up two over-a-thousand-years-old statues of Buddha in Bamiyan province. I had gone to Bamiyan in 1969 with Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. The statues were over 30 feet tall. I climbed the steps leading up to head of Buddha. The statues were listed by UNESCO as part of world heritage.
The United States had a huge presence in Afghanistan for 20 years. Thousands of US troops were stationed in the country. Aeroplanes, helicopters and tanks were all too visible. At least two US Presidents had visited Kabul to meet the troops. The US spent trillions of dollars in Afghanistan, but failed to eliminate the Taliban. (The CIA kept contact with the Taliban intelligence agencies).
President Biden’s decision to pull out 18,000 US troops from Afghanistan was taken in a hurry. He unwisely predicted that it would take the Taliban 90 days to reach Kabul. They arrived in four days. What was the CIA doing?
What is the future of Afghanistan? It is bleak. The Taliban have not yet formed their government. Who is administering the country? Who will be prime minister, foreign minister? The other very serious impediment the Taliban are likely to face is how to govern. They have no experience of governance. Who will ensure peace, stability, security? All these vital issues affect the whole region, including India.
Tens of thousands of Afghans want to leave the country. So far only 7,000 have flown out in US planes leaving their families behind. This is inhuman.
Afghanistan is almost bankrupt. The IMF have decided not to give $450 million in aid to the Taliban government, whenever it is established. There is talk of forming a composite government. Who will run it? Parliament has been abolished. What about foreign affairs and diplomacy? As far as I know, no country has recognized the Taliban as representing the people of Afghanistan. News is trickling out that the Shia Hazaras will not co-operate with the Taliban. Thus, there is a possibility of an armed conflict.
Why did the well trained and well equipped Afghan army not fight, resist the Taliban’s march to Kabul? The Ashraf Ghani government was a spectacular example of corruption with Capital C. the President and his family ran away to Dubai, taking $169 million with them. The army officers, soldiers were not paid their salaries for months.
One welcome step has been taken by the Taliban. They are talking to former President Hamid Karzai and Abdulla Abdullah. Both are well disposed towards India. Unfortunately, the Taliban are not.
In the last several decades, India has invested three and a half billion dollars in Afghanistan. We have two large industrial plants in the country, we run schools, hospitals, technical institutions, provide scholarships to Afghan students to study in India. We have given several helicopters to that country. Indian doctors and teachers live in hospitals and teachers in schools.
What can and should India do? The Taliban have already announced that bilateral trade with India has ceased. This will ruin business houses in both countries.
On Thursday evening, I had a meeting with former Vice-President Hamid Ansari. He served as Ambassador to Afghanistan. We were colleagues in the IFS. He said India should wait and watch. Sound advice.
18,000 have been evacuated.