That the Trump Administration took the decision to approve the sale of the Sea Guardian Unmanned Aerial System to India, which until recently was provided only to NATO partners, is a significant change in US’ orientation towards India.
The contemporary debates on the emerging global order have suggested a probable shift in the centre of gravity. These debates have predicted that China will assume the responsibility to lead the world’s affairs. The proliferation of the Wuhan Virus across the globe was predicated on the fact that China’s ascendancy would be imminent. However, literally, China has been exposed, although, unfortunately, there has been a lack of mobilisation of international public opinion against China’s dastardly act. There is an absolute lack of international “political will” to take action against China and at least hold it responsible for the global disorder in every sphere.
India and the United States have converged on a number of issues, impacting global peace and stability in the changing dynamics of geopolitics. More recently, during the 2+2 ministerial dialogue, both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper echoed some very positive vibes in building a robust constrictive strategic engagement. Both India and the US have understood the significance of their bilateral engagement where intangibles will get culminated into tangibles. India has witnessed continuity in US approaches towards India since India conducted its nuclear test in 1998. The US obviously took time to understand the rationale behind India going nuclear, but at the same time it showed an element of seriousness in working with India on important strategic areas. Though India has not forgotten the condemnation of its nuclear test by the United Nations Security Council resolution 1172 where the United States and China had taken the lead.
It was through India’s diplomatic manoeuvring that the United States was brought to the table in the form of the Strobe Talbott-Jaswant Singh dialogue. As many as 14 rounds of dialogues were held between them, all of which were based on well articulated benchmarks dealing with civil nuclear cooperation, civil space cooperation, defence technology cooperation and harmonisation of national export controls to international standards. India’s engagement with the United States found its resonance in these identified areas. The formation of High Technology Cooperation Group (HTCG) and the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) paved the way for building bilateral convergences. India and the United States have taken a series of reciprocal steps over the period, mainly to create an appropriate environment for increased high technology commerce.
The Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, the so-called 123 Agreement, was one such effort which got negotiated in 2008 and is one such pointer to explain the change in the United States’ approach towards India. The US had done everything to stall India’s progress in the nuclear industry, after the latter conducted its first nuclear test in 1974, by imposing stringent technological and economic sanctions. India showed its resilience and the sanctions proved to be a boon in disguise. India became self reliant and built a number of indigenous nuclear reactors to promote nuclear energy. India is being perceived as a responsible nuclear player because it has neither proliferated vertically nor horizontally. It must be emphasised here that despite being a non-signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), India has adhered to all the principles of non-proliferation.
The Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation has opened the door for India to conduct nuclear trade and commerce with all the 48 members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. It is unfortunate that India has not been able to harness much from the NSG except that Kazakhstan and Australia have supplied nuclear fuel, uranium, to India. India would need to augment its nuclear power generation and hence would require to get uranium from all the members of NSG and obviously this will be under International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) safeguards regime.
Irrespective of whether the United States governments have been led by Republicans or Democrats, the US approach towards India, especially since the last years of President Bill Clinton—to be precise the year 2000—has been one of continuity in foreign policy orientations. The bilateral strategic engagement has witnessed a greater emphasis in this emerging world order. NASA-ISRO Cooperation is at its peak in outer space matters. India and the United States have set up the Mars Working Group. Raytheon is playing an important role in India’s Gagan navigation system.
The US remains the largest supplier of conventional weaponry to India. Through “Make in India”, India would very much like to transition itself from a net importer of conventional weaponry to a net exporter of these weapons. The Inter Agency Task Force, which has been a part of the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), has been seriously engaging in identifying the parameters for such defence cooperation. India has been contemplating the possibilities of manufacturing F-16 and F-18A combat aircraft. Defence co-production involving critical technology will remain a challenge, but the commitment shown on the part of the United States towards India is something worth mentioning. More clarity would be needed mainly on the liability issues, intellectual property rights and industrial security procedures, especially on issues relating to co-production.
That the Trump Administration took the decision to approve the sale of the Sea Guardian Unmanned Aerial System to India, which until recently was provided only to NATO partners, is a significant change in US’ orientation towards India.
Finally, India and the US have also found convergence on multilateral export control regimes. India has become a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), Australia Group, Wassenaar Arrangement and hopefully will get the membership of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). China remains an impediment to India’s entry into NSG.
India and the US have come a long way and the signing of Basic Exchange and Cooperation (BECA) Agreement has added to the momentum. The geo-spatial intelligence cooperation will be many steps ahead in building mutual trust between the two countries. The commitment of the US to provide classified information to India in real time shows their robustness in understanding. Such cooperation will be vital to the requirements for both regional and global peace and stability. The overall foundation made in Indo-US strategic partnership will not allow any other power such as China to assume the responsibility to lead the world affairs. India and the US will become the new centre of gravity.
Dr Arvind Kumar teaches Geopolitics and International Relations and heads the department of Geopolitics and International Relations at Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Manipal.