With the countdown having begun for the Assembly elections in both Maharashtra and Haryana, the Bharatiya Janata Party is all geared to retain power in the two states. In fact the outcome of the polls, particularly in Haryana, will have indisputable repercussions on the chances of the Congress in Delhi, which is likely to witness a triangular contest in December.
Reports pouring in from Haryana are indicative that the BJP is already far ahead in at least 68 seats out of the total 90 seats. It, therefore, could attain a higher number if it wins in some of the 22 remaining constituencies, where it is locked in a close battle, largely with the Congress, and in some places with the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD).
The Congress is doing marginally well in the Rohtak, Sonepat and Jhajjar belt, considered to be strongholds of former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and possibly could have done better if there was greater clarity and coordinated effort from the AICC. Ashok Tanwar, who was replaced as the Haryana Pradesh Congress chief by Kumari Selja, has already raised a banner of revolt, by announcing his resignation from the primary membership of the party.
Tanwar’s exit is unlikely to make any difference to the results, since there is a very strong pro-incumbency factor working in favour of both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar. The abrogation of Article 370 has been hailed widely due to the fact that there are a large number of serving as well as former uniformed personnel in the state. Thus it is not surprising that BJP president Amit Shah in his speeches continues to make a powerful pitch for nationalism.
So far as Tanwar is concerned, he is simply waiting to hold a press conference on 24 October, the day of the results, to drive home the point that his thesis regarding the manner in which the Congress was contesting the elections had turned out to be accurate. Obviously, he has had a running feud with Hooda, who is undoubtedly the tallest leader in the state, yet is grappling to make the party relevant in the polls. The feedback is that the Congress nominees are virtually contesting as Independent candidates, with minimal support, in terms of logistics and finances, coming in from the AICC. The reality is that every candidate is on his own, and thus would have to single-handedly take on the well-oiled BJP machinery.
The 22 seats, where the BJP is engaged in a fierce contest, include Adampur, from where former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal’s son, Kuldeep Bishnoi is seeking to return to the Assembly on a Congress ticket. Adampur has been a bastion of the Bhajan Lal family and they have never lost an election from there. However, Kuldeep, despite going door to door, is facing a rigid challenge from Tik Tok star Sonali Phogat. The perception is that at present Kuldeep has the upper hand since he has been consistently campaigning, but the BJP nominee, with each passing, day is acquiring a secure foothold.
In fact, out of the 22 seats, the BJP and the Congress are engaged in a direct combat in about 15. In the rest, it is the BJP versus the JJP or INLD. The BJP’s advantage is quite evident since it has succeeded in modifying the socio-economic dynamics of voting throughout the state. A sizable number of younger Jats have also switched loyalties to the saffron brigade, thereby leaving their established leaders in the lurch. Amit Shah has succeeded in poaching to his camp many top Jat leaders, including Chaudhury Sampat Singh.
The Congress campaign has also been hit by the casual attitude of the high command, as well as some of the statements made by a handful of its leaders such as Salman Khurshid, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Sanjay Nirupam and Raj Babbar. It is an open secret that the party is imploding, with the central leadership unable to provide any direction. As a consequence, its nominees in Haryana would also bear the repercussions. Randeep Surjewala, till recently the Chief Congress spokesman, is in the fray, with his back to the wall, from Kaithal.
A contributory factor to the BJP’s supremacy in the state is also on account of Chief Minister Khattar’s image. He is viewed as an honest man of high integrity, who has imparted social justice, while granting jobs to various sections of Haryana, showing no specific preference to any community. He has been a low-key leader whose accomplishments would play a vital role in deciding the verdict.
On its own, the Congress could end up raking in seven to 14 seats. However, if the Congress is trounced in Haryana, neighbouring Delhi could witness a similar fate for the Grand Old Party. The high command has delayed in naming the Pradesh president, and the Delhi unit is in complete disarray. This basically means that the showdown for Delhi would be primarily between the Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP. The equation is that a weak Congress furnishes an advantage to the AAP and provided it had been resurgent, the BJP would be the beneficiary.
As in Haryana, Congress candidates in Delhi too would have to be more or less on their own. Whichever person is able to organise his campaign independently would remain in the fight. Unquestionably so it is not the best possible time to be a Congress nominee. Between us.