The LAC will be a pressure point to lean on the Indian government. One can expect missile firing in high altitudes, infrastructure build-up, an odd incursion and general belligerence along the LAC.
The 20th Party Congress of the CCP will play itself out. It is doubtful if there are any great surprises left. The Politburo and the Standing Committee will have new members who are largely beholden to Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping has already put his men in the Central Military Commission. He controls the gun and the party hereafter. Simultaneously, party elites are getting a loud message of loyalty to Xi. Otherwise they will be purged. As simple as that. Also, contrary to outside perception, he is popular at home. He has hyped nationalism through muscular actions in South China Sea, along the LAC and against Taiwan. He is on a roll at this point of time in history. Resultantly, he will have no problem in getting the Constitution amended to his liking. Xi Jinping will return with more powers as he elevates himself as the uncrowned king of China for life.
The Party Congress and Xi will make loud proclamations of the “Rejuvenation of the Chinese Dream”, “Common Prosperity”, “Dual Circulation”, “Victory over Covid”, “Revenge on the Century of Humiliation”, “A fair and just world” and so on during the meet. He will also warn his countrymen in a speech spanning a few hours that great dangers abound in the “last mile” of rejuvenation and that only Xi can solve them. It will be achieved through strong centralised control and prosperous state institutions which will make a lot of profits. These profits will be handed down to the poor in the name of common prosperity. Putting money in the hands of the poor will be expected to kickstart consumerism and the economy. Wide inequity or concentration of wealth engendered due to pro rich reforms and opening up will be unceremoniously on the way out. The likes of Jack Ma will have to take a permanent sabbatical. Xi will reiterate that China is set to become a “a strong, democratic, civilised, harmonious and modern socialist country” by 2049. When that happens it should be the foremost global power in a world dominated by a Sino-Centric system backed by the strongest military on earth. The era of a pragmatic non-ideological China is over. We will witness ideologically driven policies and the re-emergence of a state which is yanking hard left as left can be. It will make Mao swell with pride in his grave as Xi follows in his footsteps.
Beyond the fanfare and hubris of the 20th Party Congress, there is another dark reality. The Chinese economy is in deep trouble. Zero-Covid, real estate crisis, disruption of supply chains, flight of capital, youth unemployment and more factors point to Chinese GDP growing at a measly 2-3% for some time to come. The business environment in China is bleak and the overall outlook is gloomy. There are geopolitical headwinds due to the Ukraine war and international tensions with the US, EU, India, Taiwan and in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and South China Sea. The recent drought has underscored China’s vulnerability to climate change. It threatens to derail all fancy plans. China’s stark problem is that its demographic crisis is setting in ahead of time accompanied by symptoms of the disenchanted youth. When youth disillusionment sets in, the house can burn down fast. Remember our own Mandal Commission and its aftermath? Whether it is recognised, acknowledged or not, societal movements like “Tang Ping” and “Bailan”, which represent youth disillusionment, are dark shadows on the horizon. China might not collapse, but it will hobble. Growth, if any, will be anaemic.
At the same time, the Chinese also know that the old growth formula might not work. The days of debt fuelled investment are over. Switching to a consumption driven economy is difficult under conditions of zero Covid, joblessness and ageing population. Overseas investment and exports are the only way forward. Geopolitical headwinds and global inflation do not make for great exports. Trade with the affluent West will plateau out. The returns on BRI will be next to nothing. However, all the gloom will not inhibit Xi Jinping and China from blowing their rejuvenation trumpet during the meet. Once the Congress is over Xi Jinping will sit and decide what he must do towards the “Rejuvenation of China” dream.
XI’S OPTIONS
Economically, Xi Jinping has three options. His first option is to continue with debt-fuelled growth. Indications are that China will attempt to stabilise and then revive the property sector. Simultaneously, it is also drawing up plans to significantly increase spending on infrastructure through doubling high speed trains and South to North water transfer through mega canals. Both are high risk options. The second option is to maintain growth by rebalancing towards a consumption driven economy. In times of low wages, joblessness and an ageing society, which is not consumption oriented in the first place, this is a doubtful option. The third option is to let events run their course and go through the slump. That is political hara-kiri. China and Xi are only confronted with poor options
Diplomatically, Xi Jinping will have to contend with the affluent West, which does not trust China and will go all out to oppose it. To gain international leadership, Xi will turn to the global South, SCO and BRICS as the preferred platforms. As per indications emanating from the party hardliners, Chinese diplomats will be given a free hand to bare their wolf warrior fangs. The real issue for Xi Jinping will be how he deals with China’s no holds barred relationship with Russia. Containing the fallout from the Ukraine war will be a handful. All these will be generally glossed over during the Party meet, but will surface soon after.
Despite all other issues, the one ace up Xi Jinping’s sleeve is the PLA, which has been growing consistently and getting better equipped by the day, irrespective of all other things. The time for Xi Jinping to keep talking of building the greatest military on earth is getting over. If the economy does not revive, he will be forced to use the gun. From all inputs, he will first get after Taiwan since that’s the biggest payoff. Annexing Taiwan makes China a superpower since it involves keeping the US out of the fray militarily and breaking the first island chain to enable PLAN to be a blue water force and dominate the far seas. However, military action across the Taiwan Straits is a high-risk option for the inexperienced PLA. The other option for Xi will be to take a military bite at India. PLA is already leaning forward on the LAC to enable this option. Any success in any of these options gives Xi Jinping coercive capability to revive trade and his economy. It will be good old gunboat diplomacy. Something similar to what the colonial powers did during the opium wars. If Xi Jinping gets a chance to do that, he will attempt to complete his revenge on the century of humiliation.
SINO-INDIA EQUATIONS
What are the portents for Sino-Indian equations post the 20th Party Congress? China recognises that India will be the fastest growing economy in the times to come. It, therefore, recognises that India presents an opportunity and a threat. It will endeavour to normalise relations with India by giving minor concessions, but will attempt to continue to hold the upper hand. The gauche attempt by the foxy Chinese ambassador in Delhi to present Sino-Indian relations as normal enough to resume full trade is just the tip of the iceberg. China will come hard at India to open its markets for trade and investment, as also to reverse the bans/restrictions imposed on Chinese entities operating in India. The LAC will be a pressure point to lean on the Indian government. One can expect missile firing in high altitudes, infrastructure build-up, an odd incursion and general belligerence along the LAC.
China will make a resolute effort to increase its operations in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and regain its mojo in the South Asian countries. Already there are indications and statements coming to this effect from Chinese think-tanks and officials. There is talk of the inevitability of a carrier battle group appearing in the IOR. Till now these moves were constricted by the fact that Xi Jinping had to be cautious before re-electing himself. After the 20th Party meet, he may throw caution to winds.
RUTHLESS XI
In the larger context, the 20th Party meet is only a marker wherein many internal issues which are under manipulation for long will be put in place. Having done that, the real ideological man will emerge once Xi wears his crown. Will Xi Jinping cool down after having achieved his third term? That is the hope. However, it is a forlorn one. From all indications, Xi Jinping wants to be the most consequential leader in Chinese history. He has been single-minded and ruthless to achieve his personal goals despite the fact that he has put millions of Chinese to misery with his disastrous policies. He could set his sights higher and that will be a problem for the world at large. After all, Xi believes that China is on the right side of history to displace a struggling US in decline. As he does so, a lot of rhetoric about avoiding the mistakes of the Soviet Union will be made. However, much as Xi avoids the mistakes of USSR, he is already well on its way with his own.
Lt Gen P.R. Shankar PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retired) is a retired Director General of Artillery. The General Officer is now a Professor in the Aerospace Department of Indian Institute of Technology, Madras. His articles are available at www.gunnersshot.com