Singapore has arguably been the most important pillar in India’s politico-military and economic engagement with the Southeast Asian region since the launch of the Look East policy in 1992. The trend has not only continued during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s term, but has also strengthened over the past four years, with the launch of the Act East policy in 2014. Modi’s visit to Singapore was his third in the past four years as Prime Minister of India. He visited Singapore twice in 2015: first in March 2015 to attend the state funeral of Lee Kuan Yew, and second in November 2015, on an official visit. He was on an official visit to Singapore from 31 May to 2 June 2018. Later in the year, he will attend the 13th East Asia Summit in Singapore. A major agenda for Modi’s visit was to deliver the keynote address at the 2018 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue on 1 June.
Already, Modi had visited Indonesia and Malaysia as the first two stopovers for his three-nation tour. The significance of the visit lies in the fact that Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are three major economies of the region, and are top three trade partners of India in ASEAN. In strategic and defence terms, India’s ties with these countries have been of great significance.
While Lee Hseing Loong, the Singaporean Prime Minister, came to India on a working visit in 2016, Modi has been on official visits only. Till now, there have been no state visits between the two countries. Despite that, India-Singapore relations are one of the most important relations in the bilateral and as regional context of Indian foreign policy.
While one of the focus areas of Modi’s Indonesia visit was maritime cooperation, the agenda of his visit to Singapore was multifaceted. During his visit to Singapore in 2015, the two sides established a strategic partnership. There are no two views that both countries wish to elevate and expand the scope of their relationship. The fact that last year witnessed a regular exchange of visits from both sides, displays that both India and Singapore attach immense importance to their bilateral relations. Singaporean Defence Minster Ng Eng Hen and Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan visited India last year. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj visited Singapore and inaugurated Regional Pravasi Bhartiya Divas in January 2018.
Under Modi’s administration, both sides have sharply defined the core areas for cooperation between India and Singapore. During Swaraj’s visit in 2014, India and Singapore decided to expand engagement in five areas of cooperation termed as 5S Plank: scaling up trade and investment; speeding up connectivity; smart cities and urban rejuvenation; skill development; and state focus.
Modi’s latest visit to Singapore focused on a range of issues including economic cooperation where the focus was on strengthening economic ties. With US$17.6billion, Singapore was the second largest trading partner of India in 2017-18. Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) negotiations are still underway. The second review of CECA began six years ago and the conclusion is yet to see the light of the day.
Singapore was the prime anchor for India’s engagement with Southeast Asia in the early 1990s. Singapore’s role in convening the “India fever” shows to promote India, in and working as ASEAN’s country coordinator for India, facilitated an impressive launch of India’s Look East policy in the early 1990s. Later, in 2005, Singapore turned out to be a great support in India’s effort to join the East Asia Summit. Consistent engagements between India and Singapore on a range of issues make the relationship much deep rooted.
As the 2018 ASEAN Chair, Singapore is likely to underscore the importance of India’s role in the region. US policy flip-flops and an assertive China worry Singapore about the regional strategic equilibrium. As far as India is concerned, Modi is likely to pitch more for the importance of Singapore joining the Indo-Pacific mechanism. While India is open to the idea of improving relations with China, it is also concerned about China’s assertive policies, and long-term implications of One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative on the region.
So far, Singapore has steered clear of endorsing the Indo-Pacific strategy. As the Singapore Foreign Minister recently stated, “Singapore will not sign on for now to the free and open Indo-Pacific strategy being touted by the United States, Japan, India and Australia.” Clearly, it does not want to be associated with something which comes close to anything labelled as an anti-China coalition. Some have also attributed this to Singapore’s belief in ASEAN’s centrality. Further, in strategic terms, while Indonesia has much to gain by recognising “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”, Singapore is getting little out of joining the Indo-Pacific. The issue of joining Indo-Pacific assumes greater policy importance in view of the US giving mixed signals about its commitment to the region.
India-Singapore defence cooperation is one of the most robust partnerships in the region. Joint training for armed forces and naval cooperation are high on the agenda. During the visit of the Singapore Defence Minister in November 2017, agreement for cooperation between the two Navies was signed, which, according to the joint statement released, “will lead to increased cooperation in maritime security, joint exercises, temporary deployments from each other’s naval facilities and mutual logistics support”. This is a part of India’s strategy to bolster maritime cooperation with Southeast Asia. Modi also visited an Indian ship berthed in Singapore.
India and ASEAN completed 25 years of dialogue partnership in 2017, which was followed by India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit, with India hosting the ten ASEAN leaders as chief guests for Republic Day celebrations.
India is keen to achieve the highest level of economic, diplomatic, strategic and cultural cooperation with the region by striving to achieve goals at a faster pace and set higher agenda for future cooperation with countries of the region including Singapore. PM Modi’s Singapore visit is likely to boost a sustained dialogue between the two Prime Ministers on issues of economic, diplomatic, and strategic importance with a long-term bearing on India-Singapore relations.
Dr Rahul Mishra is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur.