French presidential candidate Eric Zemmour likens himself to UK’s Boris Johnson

London: The French Presidential election, on 10 April, has the possibility of two rounds if a candidate does not get an outright majority. President Macron is ahead in the polls and in popularity, Macron is the most likely to win the treasured second term, his approval rating for the past year has hovered around 40%. In 2017 Macron’s En Marche party succeeded in coalescing voters from the Republicans and the Socialists into the centre of politics, giving him a victory that took many in Europe by surprise. In fact, it was just an early example of what has been going on in the UK. Theresa May tried the same on the UK electorate with her “burning injustices” but failed to convince, then along came Boris Johnson who took a Conservative manifesto to Labour’s Red Wall and succeeded with a resounding majority. As someone once observed, “Macron campaigned as a Liberal and turned into a Conservative and Johnson campaigned as a Conservative and turned into a Liberal.”
In the UK, people have not paid much attention to the French election until one of the candidates, Eric Zemmour, identified himself as closest to Boris Johnson. It is a fact they have both been successful media personalities. Zemmour said he was not part of an international populist movement and he felt nearest in terms of intellectual and cultural ideology to Boris Johnson. Like President Macron, Zemmour is an intellectual, he is Jewish of Algerian Berber origin, his party is symbolically named Reconquest, his mission is to reclaim France, French culture, and French civilization from what he terms “Islamic separatism”. Zemmour’s presidential campaign launch in 2021 had a deliberate President De Gaulle atmosphere to the staging, and his appeal to save France from “The Great Replacement”, was reminiscent of De Gaulle’s 1940 appeals to save France from Germany.
Zemmour blames France’s social issues largely on Afro-Islamic immigration; Brexit has demonstrated that referenda work and should he be successful, Zemmour has committed to a national referendum on immigration. Zemmour would also like migrants to be less of a sectarian community and more of a community of French people, this has made him both a controversial and so called divisive politician. Divisive in terms of society and also in terms of dividing the far-right vote. Marine Le Pen has traditionally been regarded as the furthest-right candidate but she has made efforts to make her party appeal to more centre-right voters. Zemmour is even further right than Le Pen, who now looks less scary to traditional conservatives, but Marine Le Pen still wears the stain of her father Jean Marie Le Pen who was found guilty of racial hatred by denying the Holocaust. Will some Le Pen’s supporters swing to Zemmour, will all the recent incidents of ethnic tension swing French nationalists in Zemmour’s direction, or will Le Pen now be seen as less drastic and more acceptable than Zemmour?
Or will voters prefer the candidate in second poll position to Macron, Europhile Globalista Valerie Pegresse, who will be assisted by any split in far-right votes and is the favourite to make it into the run-off. In August last year Pegresse said “I am 2/3 Merkel and 1/3 Thatcher”. It is curious how French contenders choose to define themselves by British Prime Ministers. Michel Barnier having failed as a candidate supports fellow technocrat Pegresse, there will be no Frexit with Pegresse. She is a career politician who wants to be a French Iron Lady, a protégée of Jacques Chirac, and a Minister under Nicholas Sarkozy, she claims she is the conservative center-ground and will fight crime and drugs, improve the cost of living and wages. Pegresse has dabbled into Zemmour territory on immigration policy saying she would introduce immigration quotas and restrict welfare benefits.
To celebrate France’s position as the President of the European Union Emmanuel Macron arranged for the EU flag to fly under the Arc de Triomphe above the tomb of the unknown soldier. The entire right-wing were incandescent and the “Tricolore” was reinstated three days later, apparently according to schedule. During the election campaign Macron’s profile is likely to benefit from this rotational presidency,
Macron chose to launch his campaign in Vichy, France’s ignominious city of collaboration with Nazis, this is Macron’s challenge to Zemmour, who is accused of racism, living in a glorious past, and whitewashing French history.
Macron’s pandemic management has been successful with circa 80% of the population fully vaccinated, but the new legislation making vaccination compulsory for those who work in public venues was rendered unpopular by Macron’s vulgar coercion comment. France’s impressive economic rebound and modest inflation in gas and electricity prices, have set a fair sail for Macron providing inflation stays under control, but how to build back after the pandemic is not such a feature in this election.
Macron’s weakness is security, in 2018-19 the ‘yellow vest’ workers’ protests dominated cities and the news, now the French electorate is angry, an emotion that spurs people to vote, this election is about identity, belonging and pride. The left-wing in this election have all but disappeared, the middle ground and right-wing carry the weight; French democracy will decide who will resolve the culture wars, it is France’s equivalent of America’s Rust Belt that will decide who goes into the run-off with Macron.