Taiwan’s security is in the global interest. It is central to the First Island Chain, the geopolitical archipelago that is often cited as the US first line of defence for the Pacific Oceans should a conflict erupt between US and China.
During and since the last week of February wary mentions in parliament and Westminster of Taiwan, China and Xi have increased. On 3 March in the House of Lords Baroness D’Souza said “Taiwan is the Ukraine of the Far East”. Events in Ukraine have focussed on how European states, including UK, think about the choice between democracy and authoritarianism, as economic ties between UK and China continue to grow. The Prime Minister recently actioned the revival of trade and investments talks with China that have been on ice for four years, and the Chancellor is bringing back the UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue; some members of parliament have security misgivings about these relationships, particularly since Chinese aircraft and warships continually harass the skies over Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits.
Part of Xi’s Chinese Dream is to unite Taiwan with the mainland, and this is something the US are bound by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to avoid, by the supply of weapons and defence support decided by the President and Congress. In September 2021 former PM Theresa May asked PM Boris Johnson “What are the implications of this pact (AUKUS) for the stance and response the United Kingdom would take should China attempt to invade Taiwan?”, the PM replied, “The United Kingdom remains determined to defend international law, and that is the strong advice we would give to our friends across the world and the strong advice we would give to the Government in Beijing.” Having seen the UK’s, Europe’s and US’s response to Ukraine, if push comes to shove would the support for Taiwan be just as vociferous and weapons as plentiful? Would there be the same hesitancy about NATO intervention?
Taiwan’s security is in the global interest, it is central to the First Island Chain, the geopolitical archipelago that is often cited as the US’s first line of defence for the Pacific Oceans should a conflict erupt between US and China. Freedom of navigation and free trade would be interrupted and expensive if the South China Sea was reclaimed by the PRC. The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative just published a paper about how “survey vessels have become important actors in China’s efforts to assert its maritime claims in the South China Sea… The immediate impact and apparent intention of these surveys are to demonstrate Chinese control over waters it claims as its own.”
A recent report from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that “China has transformed what was an obsolete military into one that can challenge the U.S. military across the spectrum of conventional and unconventional capabilities… China is expanding its capability to counter third-party (i.e., U.S.) intervention during a large-scale, theatre campaign such as a Taiwan contingency… China has robust offensive and defensive capabilities aimed at gaining maritime superiority within the first island chain, including ballistic missiles able to target aircraft carriers 1,500 km from China’s coast. China also has the largest navy and shipbuilding capacity in the world.” GAO has more recently reported that China may challenge U.S. access to air, space, cyberspace, and maritime domains. China could equally challenge Taiwan, UK, Belgium, Germany…
Taiwan is the world’s semiconductor and chip manufacturing hub, but thanks to Covid-10 there is a world shortage. All countries rely on Taiwan’s production until they can set up their own facilities, and from Arizona to Ohio and Japan this is happening. The UK have a nascent chip industry, there is a huge opportunity if the government gets behind it, until then there is Taiwan and not just for chips. In 2020 UK was the number one European investor in Taiwan with investment reaching £450 million covering a wide range of sectors, from financial services to pharmaceuticals, to ICT, to offshore wind.
This week Mike and Susan Pompeo, former US Secretary of State, and his wife have been feted by President Tsai in Taipei; this publicly demonstrates Taiwan’s new importance on the world stage in future Republican foreign policy.
With all the bravado about supporting democracy, it is time that ruling parties bite the bullet and send delegations to Taiwan, perhaps Boris Johnson might lead the way and coincide with the Carrier Strike Group’s annual deployment.