A YouGov Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll predicts a resounding 68-seat majority for Boris Johnson if the general election were to take place now, with Conservatives realising 359 seats, Labour 211, SNP 43, LibDems 13 and others 4, but none for the Brexit Party. MRP uses a vast number of interviews to model people’s voting preferences based upon their demographics (age, gender, education, past vote and similar factors) plus the local political circumstances; it works by using big samples sizes to project figures onto smaller geographical areas/the 632 constituencies in mainland UK.
Other polls by Folcaldata and Datapraxis forecast similar results, with Tories gaining up to 366 seats. If correct, these results reveal that Tories will have smashed the “Red-Wall”, taking 44 seats from the Labour heartlands of Wales, the Midlands and the North.
However, analysts say there is no room for Conservative complacency or overconfidence as Remain forces and the forces of socialism are appealing for tactical voting to bring about a hung Parliament.
Best for Britain, Remainiac campaigners committed to finding a democratic way to stop Brexit, have identified 57 vulnerable target seats, including the City of London and Westminster, where pro-EU voters might vote tactically to prevent a triumph for the Tories. They claim that only 117,314 pro-EU votes could stop a Johnson victory. They even provide a guide to the candidate or party in each constituency that is best placed to defeat the Conservatives.
Which is why Johnson’s most senior advisor, Dominic Cummings, published his “BatSignal” (so called because the Gotham City Police used it as a distress signal to summon Batman during a crisis). Cummings warns, “if Boris doesn’t get a majority, then Corbyn and Sturgeon will control the government, their official policy is to give the vote to millions of foreign citizens to cheat their second referendum, we’ll all get screwed on taxes, Parliament will drag the whole country into crisis, and immigration will return to being a central issue in politics instead of being marginalised by Brexit…”
Cummings reminds folks that David Cameron, John Major, Tony Blair, Nick Clegg, Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Keir Starmer, Jo Swinson and the official Remain campaign all said: “No second referendum, one vote, it will hold for a generation and Leave means leaving the Single Market and Customs Union and everyone should realise that because there’s no going back after the 23 June 2016.” A totally different tune to today when the above former-PMs are supporting Remain, Swinson/LibDems are on a Revoke the Referendum/Stop Brexit platform and Corbyn wants to remain “neutral” in a second referendum; shamelessly they all want to overturn the 2016 result.
The People’s Vote campaign was temporarily discredited by Alistair Campbell (Tony Blair’s campaign Director/Spokesman, now journalist/broadcaster) in the Spectator. Although Campbell still roots for a Remain Alliance and a second referendum, he had not a good word for “Chair of the People’s Vote campaign” Roland Rudd, brother of Amber, who seems to have been driven by considerations of personal status and glory within a privileged London elite, rather than serious political thinking.
This week UK and the Commonwealth’s Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis wrote in the Times that British Jews are gripped with anxiety about what will become of them should there be a Labour government. He reflects on Labour’s track record of anti-Semitism, quoting, “According to the Jewish Labour Movement, there are at least 130 outstanding cases before the party, some dating back years, and thousands more have been reported but remain unresolved…The party leadership have never understood that their failure is not just one of procedure, which can be remedied with additional staff or new processes. It is a failure to see this as a human problem rather than a political one. It is a failure of culture. It is a failure of leadership. A new poison—sanctioned from the top—has taken root in the Labour Party.” Could there be a more damning indictment from a moral authority?
To avoid accusations of anti-Semitism, Labour have made melodramatic allegations about the dossier that outlined the US optimum spec for a trade deal as perceived by the UK trade officials present; Corbyn focused on the NHS element. Corbyn recited quotes and made alarming insinuations that the NHS was at risk. His remarks were out of context and out of time. The pre-negotiations briefing was two years ago. Prominent Conservatives have said drug patent extensions will not apply in UK and the UK will exclude the health service; Johnson repeated on Friday the NHS is not for sale and his government would walk out if US made the NHS conditional to trade talks.
Corbyn is making the most of being the enemy of a super-rich, tax-dodging billionaire class. His skilled campaign style of the concerned, avuncular environmentalist appeals to the under 30s. This demographic has no experience of socialist nationalisation. Corbyn’s Labour seems to be the political home to an anti-Semitic, anti-capitalist and possibly anti-British generation.
The Conservative’s Manifesto could reclaim the youth vote with conservation policies and initiatives such as pledging 2.4% of GDP spent on R&D across the economy, doubling the basic science budget; with spending going to a new high-risk, high-payoff research agency, at arm’s length from government and modelled on US’ Advanced Research Projects Agency. The Johnson government would also continue supporting scientific research collaboration with the EU, including Horizon.
It is less than two weeks until votes are cast, during which time the Tories’ message must keep vibrant and Tory voters will be alert to scaremongering from the Remain Camp and Labour.