London: Sue Gray’s report that will establish if the setting and purpose of the dozen plus gatherings in Downing Street and Whitehall, who was in attendance and were they in adherence to the rules in place at that time, was due out this week; at the time of writing it was expected to come out on Friday evening. It has been reported the Metropolitan Police have asked Gray to exclude pertinent details from of the report for fear of prejudicing their own investigation. The crux is if Johnson is found to have misled parliament. Civil servant Sue Gray took over the report from Simon Case, the Cabinet Secretary who is the PM’s most senior policy adviser and acting Secretary to the Cabinet, after it emerged that the office of Simon Case had enjoyed revelry in the Cabinet Office during the lockdown over Christmas 2021.
Everyone wants to know if Boris Johnson will survive as Prime Minister and as Leader of the Conservative Party. The Party faithful rallied around him enthusiastically praising his leadership over Brexit, during the pandemic and UK’s post-pandemic economic recovery. Especially eloquent were his long term allies such as Jacob Rees Mogg, Priti Patel, Nadine Dorries, Oliver Dowden. Another ally and committed Johnson sherpa is Lord David Frost, they have a close and longterm experience together; Lord Frost has been a dependable and reliable supporter, which made his exit in December all the more surprising. Since then Lord Frost has been publishing constructive and helpful advice to the PM in the national press, which some people interpret as criticism, but this reporter interprets it as helpful direction in the public domain from someone who is familiar with Johnson and whose advice Johnson has respected and accepted for many years.
The PM has admitted he was wrong, has apologised and shown remorse; loyalists are asking does a piece of cake or a bite of cheese and a glass of wine amount to ditching the PM with the largest Conservative majority since 1987.
For the moral superiority crusaders an apology is not enough, they list the scandals and misdemeanours and bang on about bring your own booze parties which have occurred, and the Met is now investigating events at Downing Street and Whitehall where participants may have breached Health Protection Regulations. Police Commissioner Cressida Dick has stressed this investigation does not reach the threshold for a criminal investigation has emphasized any breaches in regulations may result in fixed penalty notices.
Aside from the enthusiasts there are several streams working against Boris, the hedging their bets leadership aspirants who have decided it is better to be a loyalist than a renegade, Liz Truss and Sajid Javid might be in this bracket. Then there are those who remain silent and are distancing themselves from the situation, Michael Gove and Rishi Sunak might be in this group . And then there are the conspirators who are perpetually haranguing Boris Johnson about his policy direction, MPs such as Jeremy Hunt, Steve Baker and Dominic Cummings former Chief Advisor to the PM, all of whom are likely to have pressure from constituent minorities or external elements. Is it criminal that people working 15 hour days, sharing the same office have a drink together after work, is this paralysis of parliament just another example of anti-democratic forces attempt at undermining the people’s choice.
This week Conservative MP Nusrat Ghani, who made history as the first female Muslim Minister to speak from the House of Commons dispatch box, inexplicably chose a time when the PM is fighting for his political future to announce that her Tory colleagues felt uncomfortable with her “Muslimness”, which has never been obviously overt with the exception of her commendable campaign for Uighurs in Xinjian. Ghani claims that her faith was an aspect of why she was sacked as a transport minister in 2020. The PM is taking this allegation extremely seriously and has ordered an investigation; Ghani is married to the Director of policy and public affairs at Sky News. Some suspect Ghani will cross the floor to join with the Liberal Democrats.
Following this is an emerging hypothesis of the involvement of a Deputy Director of the Cabinet Office, Jo Cuddeford, whose husband Paul Brand of ITV News has broken many of the leaks associated with partygate. Exactly what is going on in the Cabinet Office is anyone’s guess. In a extraordinary episode last week Lord Theodore Agnew Minister of State at the Cabinet Office and Her Majesty’s Treasury, renowned for his integrity, resigned in an unusually forthright speech at the House of Lords, he was objecting to the government/the Treasury’s handling of fraudulent Covid bounce-back business loans, he specifically said his departure was not an attack on the Prime Minister but that a combination of arrogance, indolence and incompetence freezes the government machine.
Be it a storm in a tea cup or a conspiracy against the PM even 54 letters of no confidence to Graham Brady Chairman of the 1922 Committee will have no effect, for the next step would be to get 50% of 359 Tory Backbench MP’s to join a vote of no confidence against the PM; and that folks is wishful thinking.
Whatever Gray’s conclusions are in the report, and there may be uncomfortable references to a laissez faire and woke culture in No10, Tory MPs will understand the crucial point that there is no alternative to Boris Johnson, but a significant change in policies and in systems and people surrounding the PM is essential.